The Morning Call
7/17/17
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P (and the Dow) moved through the upper boundary of its recent one month
trading range. Volume was low and
breadth unimpressive. But price is truth;
and price says stocks are going higher.
TLT
rose just enough on Friday to close on its 200 day moving average and the lower
boundary of its very short term uptrend.
That leaves me on the sideline on trend and on exactly what bond
investors are thinking. A hopeful sign
is that most other segments of the fixed income complex performed well on
Friday.
The
dollar’s chart is starting to remind me of GLD---sick. It is a bit confusing that bond investors
seem uncertain about the economy while the dollar is so pronounced in its
pessimism.
GLD
was the mirror image of the dollar, popping above the upper boundary of its very
short term downtrend and nearing its 100 and 200 day moving averages. Typically, gold and the dollar are negatively
correlated, so Friday’s pin action is not surprising. What is surprising was TLT Casper Milquetoast
performance.
The
VIX is challenging the lower boundaries of its intermediate and long term
trading ranges for the eighth time. If
it remains there through the close on Tuesday the intermediate term trend will
reset to a downtrend; if it remains there through the close on Thursday, the
long term trend will reset to a downtrend.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight,
strong economic data out of China (short):
On
the other hand (medium):
The
latest from John Mauldin (medium):
Investing for Survival
Simple
beats complex.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Revenue of $2.97B (+6.1% Y/Y) misses by $40M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
July NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 9.8 versus expectations of
15.0.
Other
Politics
Domestic
International
Countries
that trust their government the most/least (short):
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