Monday, July 24, 2017

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

7/24/17

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P chart continues to speak for itself.  It is solidly in an uptrend; and there is nothing, technically, to make one think anything is going to change---except the VIX (see below).

            So what could go wrong? (short):




            The long Treasury performed well last week---again suggesting that bond investors are not concerned about a strengthening economy or a tightening Fed.



            The dollar got monkey hammered---and as above, suggesting that UUP investors are not thinking about a strong economy or a tightening Fed.



            GLD’s chart is healing.  On Friday, it finished above its 100 day moving average; if it remains there through the close on Tuesday, it will revert to support---and not to beat a dead horse, reflects gold investor sentiment that a strong economy or tightening Fed is not a concern.



            This is the longest chart I can get on the VIX.  The short and intermediate term downtrends are pretty clear.  Plotting a long term downtrend is more of a problem.  Given that the intermediate and long term trading ranges were so similar, perhaps that is the way we should look their downtrends.  Not to state the obvious, the VIX is now at an all-time historical low.  I believe that says something about the relative valuation of equities.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            ***overnight, (1) the July EU Markit PMI hit a six month low, (2) the IMF lowered its 2017 US economic growth estimate, (3) the UK trade secretary will meet his US counterpart, (4) congress agreed on sanctions against Russia.

       Investing for Survival
   
            Here is what makes a talking head credible.


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
V.F. (NYSE:VFC): Q2 EPS of $0.29 beats by $0.01.
Revenue of $2.36B (+1.7% Y/Y) beats by $70M.


Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Draghi’s confusion (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            Regime change in Saudi Arabia (medium):


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