Friday, July 28, 2017

The Morning Call--Confusing day

The Morning Call

7/28/17

The Market
         
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 21796, S&P 2475) had another mixed day (Dow up, S&P flat).  Volume rose; breadth improved.  The upward momentum as defined by their 100 and 200 day moving averages and uptrends across all timeframes remains intact.  At the moment, technically speaking, I see little, except for the VIX, to inhibit the Averages’ challenge of the upper boundaries of their long term uptrends---now circa 24198/2763. 

The VIX (10.1) was up 6 ¾ %, unusual for the day’s pin action.  It finished above the former lower boundaries of both the intermediate and long term trading ranges.  To be sure, enough time has lapsed to confirm the break of both trends to the downside.  That said, given we are talking about the VIX hitting an all-time low, there is the question of whether the last week’s decline was some kind of blow off bottom.  Follow through.

The long Treasury declined, ending back below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend.  But it remained above its 100 and 200 day moving averages.  The gap between the uptrend and the moving average is very small; so TLT is in a sort of no man’s land.  Any follow through in either direction (i.e. above the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend or below the moving averages) will likely determine its next big move.

The dollar finished back above the lower boundary of its short term trading range, negating Wednesday’s break; but that did little to improve an otherwise ugly chart.

 GLD fell slightly, ending above its 100 and 200 day moving averages. 

Bottom line: yesterday’s overall pin action was pretty confusing: Dow up, S&P flat; the VIX up big on a rise in the Dow; and a third day of uncertain vacillation by the TLT, UUP and GLD.  I don’t pretend to know what that means, if anything.   But we do know that the Averages remain firmly in uptrends.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            The pin action wasn’t the only thing that was a bit confusing yesterday.  The economic data was also not what it appeared on the surface.  The June durable goods headline number was strong, but that was due to a huge increase in the erratic transportation orders, leaving core orders down.  The June trade deficit shrunk, but the May deficit was revised up by an equal amount.  The June Chicago national activity index was up more than expected, but the May number was revised down.  I scored all these a neutral; but that durable goods stat is a negative.

            ***overnight, Spain and France reported second quarter GDP in line with estimates, while Germany was above expectations; second quarter Japanese CPI was in line.

            On fiscal policy, GOP leadership killed the border adjustment tax.  It was never very popular anyway; but it did provide revenue for a corporate tax cut.  The question is, will this result in a scale back in the corporate tax cut or a revenue negative tax cut?  I believe that the answer is important because this country can’t afford to expand either its deficit or its debt.

                ***overnight, the senate GOP failed to pass the ‘skinny repeal’ healthcare reform bill.

            It is hard for me to go a day without ragging on the Fed, especially after a major event.  I will let Lacy Hunt do it for me as he addresses the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the Fed’s dual mandate (medium):

Bottom line: the two notable events of the day for me were (1) the schizophrenic performance of all of the Markets.  As I said above, I don’t know that it means anything; but I don’t know that it doesn’t and (2) the demise of the border adjustment tax.  I believe that is a plus as regards our trade policy.  But I fear it could be a negative if Trump/GOP proceed with their promised tax cuts without finding alternative sources of revenue to pay for them.  To do so would just continue the irresponsible fiscal policies of the Bush and Obama reigns.  Adding to the deficit/debt would simply place a heavier burden (debt service) on the economy, further stifling growth.

For those who haven’t yet, I would sell a portion of my winners and all my losers in order to build a cash position.  Sell high, buy low.

       Investing for Survival
   
            Are ETF’s and index funds more dangerous in a bear market?

           
    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
C. R. Bard (NYSE:BCR): Q2 EPS of $2.92 beats by $0.08.
Revenue of $979.7M (+5.2% Y/Y) beats by $3.23M.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): Q2 EPS of $0.78 misses by $0.06.
Revenue of $62.9B (+9.0% Y/Y) beats by $980M.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $0.94/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 10 versus its June reading of 11.

            Second quarter GDP was up 2.6%, in line; but the first quarter number was revised from up 1.4% to up 1.2%.

   Other

            Quote of the day (short):

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

            The balance of power in Saudi Arabia (medium):

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