Update

The Morning Call

2/15/17

Fellow fun lovers, my family issues have taken longer to resolve than I expected.  So I am going to be tied up through the weekend.  I have been keeping up with the Markets in off moments and coping links to relevant articles

The Market

         

    Technical

            Bottom line: the Averages are on a sizz; so sit back and enjoy it.  It potentially has the makings of a melt up which historically has marked the beginning of the end.  Still too soon to know.

            The stats on previous bull and bear markets (short):

            http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/157249701528/new-all-time-highs-confirm-bull-market-alive-and

            VIZ

            https://pensionpartners.com/am-i-the-only-one-nervous/

            Bonds

            US largest creditors dump Treasuries

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-12/america-s-biggest-creditors-dump-treasuries-in-warning-to-trump

            Boom Bust barometer (short):

            http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=12774

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Bottom line: the US economic stats this week have so far been upbeat while the global numbers have been down right awful.  Yellen testified yesterday and net, net sounded a tad more hawkish.  The Market seemed to love it because it had a Goldilocks sound to it (economy is strengthening so tightening is coming, we are just not sure when).

            In addition, it seems the legislative calendar is starting to clog up: repeal Obamacare, tax and spending bills, Supreme Court Justice to confirm.  So may are having doubts about what can indeed to done.  The good news is that the ‘border tax’ may fade into the background.  The bad news is that the end result could be nothing but a food fight. 

            Meantime, stocks get ever more overvalued.

           

            The latest from David Stockman (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/stockman-whats-going-today-complete-insanity

            The latest from Jim Rogers (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-11/jim-rogers-were-about-have-worst-economic-problems-lifetime-lot-people-will-disappea

            More on the ‘border’ tax (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/biggest-case-wto-history-europe-prepares-legal-challenge-against-trump-border-tax

            More on valuation (medium):

            https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-13/a-top-bond-strategist-looks-at-stocks-and-recoils

       Investing for Survival

   

            Lessons from 2016 (part 3):

            http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-lessons-2016-part-three

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) declares $0.65/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP): Q4 EPS of $1.20 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $19.52B (+5.0% Y/Y) in-line.

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.025/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Goldman’s latest on the economy (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-13/goldman-improvement-global-growth-has-run-its-course

            EU banks embark on mother of all debt binges (medium and a must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-14/biggest-eu-banks-embark-mother-all-debt-binges

            Quote of the day (short):

            http://cafehayek.com/2017/02/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-216.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

Politics

           

  Domestic

Paying them not to kill us (short):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-12/paying-them-not-kill-us

  International

            The EU will soon be free to mismanage their own affairs (medium):

            http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/2523eurozone-2523IMF-2523Greece-2523Germany-2523Tsipras-2523EU/2/12/2017/id/59391

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