The Morning Call
2/27/17
The
Market
Technical
There
is little say about the S&P chart except that it is spectacular. At the moment, the assumption is that it will
challenge the upper boundary of its long term uptrend. Further it would have to fall almost 7%
before any support level would be challenged.
On the other hand, this is what blow off tops look like.
The long
Treasury appears to be breaking out of a developing pennant formation on
volume. TLT still has a number of
resistance levels to overcome (100 and 200 day moving averages, a very short
term downtrend). However, a reversal has
to start someplace. Time will tell. The importance of this potential move is that
it is signaling that the Trumpflation trade may be ending. That would have implications for the equity
market.
GLD
continues to repair what had been an ugly chart. It still has a ways to go; but it is all
about progress.
The
dollar was up fractionally on Friday---something of an anomaly when rates drop
(TLT rises). It is also above its 100 and
200 day moving averages, in a short term uptrend and an intermediate term
trading range.
The
VIX remains in a zone that characterizes complacency. It can remain there for a long time; and
indeed already has. But it is a warning
sign that at current price levels investors have no fear.
Fundamental
Headlines
Monday
with Trump: budget news
Here
is a counterpoint from David Stockman.
This is a 26 minute interview but is well worth the time spent.
***Overnight,
Germany said that a Greek bailout must not include creditors taking losses on
the loans/bonds; February economic sentiment came in at 108.0 versus the
January reading of 107.9
Investing for Survival
Be
prepared for a bear market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
January
durable goods orders were up 1.8%, in line; however, (1) the December reading
was revised from -0.4% to -0.8% and (2) ex transportation, the number was -0.2%
versus expectations of +0.5%.
Other
OPEC
and the production cut (medium):
Politics
Domestic
Intellectual
intolerance (medium and a must read):
International War Against Radical
Islam
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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