The Morning Call
2/6/17
The
Market
Technical
Despite
some major jigginess on Friday stemming from the better nonfarm payrolls number
and the Trump reform proposals for Dodd Frank, the S&P just couldn’t
penetrate its 2300 level. That doesn’t
mean that it won’t. But until this index
can trade above 2300, I think that the best we can hope for overall is further
churn in stocks.
I
thought that I would show some longer term charts this week because most of the
indicators I watch are nearing critical technical levels. As you can see, TLT has endured some severe
whackage since mid-2016 and is now nearing the lower boundaries of all
timeframes. The bond boys have
historically been better at forecasting the economy than the stock guys; so how
TLT handles these support levels could be a good indication of the outlook for
growth and inflation.
Gold
is one day away from reestablishing a very short term uptrend and is a short
hair away from challenging its 100 day moving average. While it still has a ways to go before regaining
an uptrend, the chart appears to be getting healthier.
The
dollar is in a very short term downtrend and is near challenging its 100 day
moving average. If successful, the 200
day moving average and the lower boundary of its short term uptrend are next.
The
VIX (11) fell 8% on Friday. It is below
its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend. It is nearing the lower boundaries of its
intermediate term trading range (10.3) and its long term trading range (9.8).
Fundamental
Headlines
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