Friday, July 29, 2016

The Morning Call--Oooops

The Morning Call


The Market

The indices (DJIA 18456, S&P 2170) closed near the flat line again yesterday (Dow down, S&P up).  Volume fell and breadth continued weak.  The VIX was down slightly, closing for the fourth day back above the lower boundary of its former short term trading range.   If nothing changes today, I am returning the trend to that trading range.

The Dow closed [a] above rising 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {17386-19132}, [c] in an intermediate term uptrend {11277-24107} and [d] in a long term uptrend {5541-19431}.

The S&P finished [a] above its rising 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term uptrend {2036-2275}, [d] in an intermediate uptrend {1907-2509} and [e] in a long term uptrend {862-2246}. 

The long Treasury declined slightly, still ending above its 100 day moving average and well within very short term, short term, intermediate term and long term uptrends. 

GLD fell, remaining back above the lower boundary of the former very short term uptrend for the second day---which it negated on Wednesday.  Like the VIX, I think that we need more follow through to determine direction.  It ended above its 100 day moving average and short term and intermediate term uptrends. 

Bottom line:  the equity Market keeps sleeping through a heavy calendar economic data, earnings reports and central bank meetings---although to be fair there wasn’t much new in any of this.  This pin action is encouraging in that the current sideways consolidation after a ten percent up move suggests that the bulls are still in control. 

That said, two big events remain ahead---the Bank of Japan meeting (today and a disappointment; see below) and the Italian bank ‘stress’ text (tomorrow); so maybe the stock boys are awaiting news from those proceedings before acting.  Further, I am still a bit perplexed because bond, gold, oil and currency markets are bouncing around.  Something seems amiss. 

Be careful.



            For the second day in a row, the US economic data was universally bad: the June trade deficit, weekly jobless claims and the July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index were disappointing.

            On the other hand, the international stats, though meager, continued upbeat: German and Spanish unemployment fell.
            ***overnight, July EU flash inflation rose 0.2%, in line, Italian unemployment rose more than expected and second quarter French GDP was flat versus a forecast on an advance.

            However, more important than these latest numbers are two major upcoming events:

(1)     today’s Bank of Japan meeting.  In it, it held rates unchanged and announced only a modest increase in its bond buying program.  This is clearly a disappointment to those expecting ‘helicopter’ money.  Hopefully, it is a sign that the leading perpetrator of egregiously irresponsible monetary policies has finally figured out that they haven’t and won’t work.  One has to wonder if Bernanke counselled this move.

(2)   the results of the latest Italian bank new stress test expected tomorrow (medium):
Bottom line: the Market has had a lot to digest this week, though much of it held little surprise, though today’s GDP number and the disappointing BOJ action could change all that.  Keep in mind that we still don’t know the results of the Italian bank stress test; and we have no idea about the real consequences of the Brexit; nor do we know what the Catalan secession vote means.  On the other hand, the Market is priced for perfection and the above is not exactly perfect. 

I am confused and continue to believe that the only reasonable strategy at this point is use the current strength to pare back your big winners and get rid of any losers.

            The point of no return for QE (medium):

            The duration connection (medium and a must read):

My thought for the day:  It is important to remember than no investment strategy works all the time.  You are simply not going to constantly win.  But many investors try to by chasing the latest Market ‘theme’.  Unfortunately, that has been shown time and time again to lead to consistent underperformance. 

It is true that there are many valid investment strategies; but the key is to focus on the one that best suits your temperament and then pursue it consistently.  Keep in mind that each of these valid strategies work in the course of a Market cycle but they don’t work all the way through it. 

The good news is that when your strategy isn’t working, it shakes out the weak minded and serves to boost your performance by allowing you to buy stocks cheaply in pessimistic times.

       Investing for Survival
            Investing rules from Lance Roberts.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard (NYSE:MA): Q2 EPS of $0.96 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $2.7B (+13%Y/Y) beats by $110M.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $0.89/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): Q2 EPS of $0.41 misses by $0.23.
Revenue of $57.7B (-22.1% Y/Y) misses by $2.53B.

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS): Q2 EPS of $1.43 in-line.
Revenue of $14.63B (+3.8% Y/Y) misses by $20M


   This Week’s Data

            The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -6 versus June’s reading of +2.

                Second quarter GDP was up 1.2% versus expectations of up 2.6%; while the price deflator was up 2.2% versus estimates of up 1.8% (ooops)


            US home ownership rate at lowest level since 1965 (medium):

            The Atlanta Fed cut its second quarter GDP growth estimate just prior to today’s data release (short):



  International War Against Radical Islam

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