Monday, July 11, 2016

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call


The Market

       Monday Morning Chartology

            Clearly investors loved Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.  Even though the spike was on low volume, it sliced through the upper boundary of the S&P’s short term trading range like a hot knife through butter and is a short hair away from the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  If the S&P remains above 2110 through the close tomorrow, its short term trend will reset to up.  That said, it is in a heavily congested area of resistance, so further progress will likely be labored.

Update on margin debt (short):

            I said it last week.  How to argue with this chart?  Whoever thought that the long Treasury would be on a moonshot when rates are already below 2%?

            GLD continues to do well, somewhat surprising in the midst of a moonshot environment in which everything is awesome.  I can’t explain the reason.  It seems like investors are buying gold and TLT based on a poor global economic outlook and stocks on a goldilocks US forecast.  That is a little tough for me to reconcile.

            This is a very rational analysis of gold as an investment.  However, I wonder how the author would categorize stocks that haven’t, don’t and have no foreseeable prospect of paying a dividend.  (medium)

            Looks like the VIX is going to make a sixth try at busting through the lower boundary of its short term trading range.


            Deutschebank’s chief economist calls for E150 billion bank bailout (medium):

            The latest from Doug Kass (medium):

            ***June Chinese consumer inflation rose at a 1.9% annual rate, below the official goal of 3%; May Italian industrial output fell 0.6%; Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s party scored a big victory in parliament and afterward he promised a new stimulus policy (as opposed to the old stimulus policy).

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            Update on consumer credit (student and auto loans):



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