Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

7/11/16

The Market

         

    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            Clearly investors loved Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.  Even though the spike was on low volume, it sliced through the upper boundary of the S&P’s short term trading range like a hot knife through butter and is a short hair away from the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  If the S&P remains above 2110 through the close tomorrow, its short term trend will reset to up.  That said, it is in a heavily congested area of resistance, so further progress will likely be labored.

Update on margin debt (short):

            http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX

            I said it last week.  How to argue with this chart?  Whoever thought that the long Treasury would be on a moonshot when rates are already below 2%?

            GLD continues to do well, somewhat surprising in the midst of a moonshot environment in which everything is awesome.  I can’t explain the reason.  It seems like investors are buying gold and TLT based on a poor global economic outlook and stocks on a goldilocks US forecast.  That is a little tough for me to reconcile.

            This is a very rational analysis of gold as an investment.  However, I wonder how the author would categorize stocks that haven’t, don’t and have no foreseeable prospect of paying a dividend.  (medium)

            http://www.pragcap.com/what-is-gold/

            Looks like the VIX is going to make a sixth try at busting through the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

    Fundamental

            Deutschebank’s chief economist calls for E150 billion bank bailout (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-10/deutsche-banks-chief-economist-calls-%E2%82%AC150-billion-bailout-european-banks

            The latest from Doug Kass (medium):

            http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/07/08/risk_can_happen_fast_in_our_interconnected_world_102256.html

      

            ***June Chinese consumer inflation rose at a 1.9% annual rate, below the official goal of 3%; May Italian industrial output fell 0.6%; Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s party scored a big victory in parliament and afterward he promised a new stimulus policy (as opposed to the old stimulus policy).

       Investing for Survival

   

            20 cognitive biases.

            http://ritholtz.com/2016/07/20-cognitive-biases/

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Update on consumer credit (student and auto loans):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-08/consumer-credit-jumps-19-billion-may-thanks-new-all-time-highs-student-and-auto-loan

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

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