Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

12/1/14

The Market

           

    Technical

        Monday Morning Chartology

            Notice how the S&P advances but only as fast as the upper boundary of its long term uptrend.  At this point, it clearly needs to turn on the after burners to break free to the upside.  Of course, it could just keep creeping higher along with that upper boundary.  Or buyers could be shooting their wad right now and stocks roll over.  Stay tuned.

            The historical pin action on first trading day of December (short):

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Bears-Trample-Decembers-First-Trading-Day-DIA-SPY-QQQ

            Update on sentiment (short):

            http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/11/28/bullish-sentiment-back-above-50.html

            The long Treasury rallied hard in the last week.  It closed Friday above the upper boundary of a very short term trading range (orange lines) and is now approaching the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range---not the kind of pin action you would expect in a growing economy.

            GLD just couldn’t stand prosperity.  It dropped back below the lower boundary of its former long term trading range and with help of the plunging oil prices is likely to go lower.

            The VIX rose a lot harder than I would have thought given Friday’s pin action.  It did so just in time to maintain its short term uptrend---which is negative for stocks.

    Fundamental

 

            I was a bit surprised by just how lousy the economic numbers were last week.  Aside from revised third quarter GDP and durable goods orders (both positive and primary indicators), the balance did not make great reading: the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (primary), flash PMI, third quarter corporate profits, consumer confidence and sentiment, mortgage and purchase applications, personal income and spending (primary), Chicago PMI, jobless claims and new home sales (primary). 

            Just when I thought that we were back to a more normal flow of economic data after that period of poor numbers, we get a week like that.  If the stats this week return to the plus side, I am sticking with the notion that the economy is advancing albeit erratically.  If they are negative, then the yellow light starts flashing again.

            ***overnight, Moody’s downgrades Japan’s credit rating, the Swiss gold referendum failed, US retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were down 11%, China November manufacturing PMI was down to eight month low, November EU manufacturing PMI down and the October reading revised lower, the UK November manufacturing PMI up slightly.

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/5-things-ponder-tryptophan-induced-coma

            And (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-30/why-anyone-believes-printing-money-will-leave-us-better-beyond-me

     Investing for Survival

            Mental biases the impact your investing (medium):

            http://theweek.com/article/index/270401/7-mental-biases-that-could-impact-how-you-invest

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            The effect of declining oil prices (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/there-will-be-blood-petrodollar-death-means-liquidity-and-oil-exporting-crisis-deck

            Quote of the day (short):

            http://cafehayek.com/2014/11/quotation-of-the-day-1188.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam