The Morning Call
12/15/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P closed Friday within uptrends across all timeframes. That said, the pin action suggests that we
should be looking for support levels.
The three most visible for the S&P right now is the 50 day moving
average (wiggly red line)---which the S&P basically closed right on
Friday. The purple line is at circa
1902. The 200 day moving average is
circa 1944. Of course, these all exist
within the confines of all the uptrends; so the break of any of them would not
be catastrophic a technical development.
The
long Treasury finished above the upper boundary of its intermediate term
trading range for the third day. A close
above it today would reset that trend to an uptrend. Meanwhile, TLT is within very short term and
short term uptrends and above its 50 day moving average. The bond guys are telling us that either an
economic slowdown is coming or that a crisis is coming overseas.
GLD
rose Friday, ending within a very short term uptrend, a short term trading
range, an intermediate term downtrend, a long term trading range and above its
50 day moving average. GLD buyers are
also suggesting that there could be trouble in River City.
The
VIX was up big again on Friday, finishing within a short term trading range and
intermediate term downtrend and above its 50 day moving average. It is now near the top end of a trading range
going back more than a year. That argues
that stocks are near a bottom.
Fundamental
Abe
won the elections by a landslide---so QEInfinity rolls on and I now officially
have no sympathy for the Japanese workingman.
The Fed meets this week with rumors of a change in language to indicate
an early move to raise interest rates.
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