Tuesday, December 2, 2014

The Morning Call---No improvement in the economic numbers

The Morning Call

12/2/14

The Market
           
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 17776, S&P 2053) drifted lower, but they are still within uptrends across all timeframes: short term (16142-18888, 1861-2225), intermediate term (16103-20168, 1704-2420) and long term (5159-18521, 783-2062).  They also finished above their 50 day moving averages. 

Volume was up; breadth horrible.  The VIX jumped 7%, closing within a short term uptrend, an intermediate term downtrend and back above its 50 day moving average.  

                Update on sentiment (short):
               
The long Treasury fell, bouncing down from the upper boundary its very short term trading range but remaining within a short term uptrend, an intermediate term trading range and above its 50 day moving average. 

GLD was up 4%.  It not only ended back above the lower boundary of its former long term trading range for the third time but also above its 50 day moving average and very close to the upper boundary of its short term downtrend---and did so on big volume.  So the battle continues over the validity of the lower boundary of its former long term trading range.  As I have noted, how this tension gets resolved may determine where the bottom is in the current downtrend and will likely indicate near term price direction.  Meanwhile, it finished within short, intermediate and long term downtrends.



Bottom line: the Averages had to digest a load of bad economic news plus a schizophrenic oil price; but did so fairly well---which is encouraging.  Meanwhile, the S&P is pushing against the upper boundary of its long term uptrend, TLT bounced off the upper boundary of its very short term trading range, GLD rallied hard finishing back above the lower boundary of its long term trading range for the third time and above its 50 day moving average to boot and the VIX failed at its attempt to break below its short term uptrend.  Notice the pattern?  A lot is going on in numerous markets.  I am not suggesting that is bad news; indeed, it could be great news depending on how those indices treat those boundaries.  But caution is warranted till we get follow through.
           
            Technical update from Andrew Thrasher (medium):

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news was mixed: Markit PMI came in below expectations while the ISM manufacturing index was better than anticipated.

            The most discussed item was oil prices which resemble the kangaroo in the old Bugs Bunny cartoons.  The proximate cause of the latest round of volatility was the OPEC meeting where production levels were left unchanged.  I have dwelled on this subject constantly both the positive (lower consumer prices and industrial costs) and the negatives (potential layoffs and debt defaults) and, as you know, have admitted that I have no idea where the net positives start being offset by the net negatives. 

            The one thing that I do know is that as long as oil is experiencing the kind of volatility that it has of late, there remains the potential for disruptive events whether they are economic (impact on consumer spending) or market (oil traders have been crushed) related.  So we want to watch oil prices carefully and be sensitive to any visible effects that might occur.  I know that is a pretty vanilla conclusion; but expertise on oil economics is not my long suit.  Hence, since I have no great insight, I would prefer the sidelines until the smoke clears.

More on declining oil prices (short):

            Overseas, the news was almost universally bad: Moody’s downgraded Japan’s credit rating, the Swiss gold referendum failed, US retail sales over the Thanksgiving weekend were down 11%, China November manufacturing PMI was down to an eight month low, November EU manufacturing was PMI down and the October reading revised lower.  Bright spot:  the UK November manufacturing PMI up slightly.

            ***overnight, rumors abound that the Bank of China will ease further, the Russian government estimated 2015 economic growth at -0.8% and Cyber Monday sales were up 8% versus forecasts of up 13%.

Bottom line: as I noted yesterday, last week was disappointing for US economic data and this week is off to a less than stellar start.  Perhaps even worse, the rest of the world shows no sign of halting its economic decline, much less stabilizing.  And the volatility in oil prices, while not necessarily bad, does provide the potential for unnerving events.  Add the fact that stocks are outrageously priced and it seems a good time to be considering taking some risk off the table.

I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.

            Update on valuation (short):
            http://dshort.com/

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            2014 GAAP versus non-GAAP earnings (short):

            Goldman’s forecast for 2015 (medium):

       Investing for Survival

            Beware of post-election forecasts (medium):

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