The Morning Call
9/8/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P kept its winning streak alive, remaining in uptrends across all
timeframes: short term (1936-2137), intermediate term (1990-2700) and long term
(762-2014); it also closed above its 50 day moving average. It clearly is nearing the upper boundary of
its long term uptrend. But, as I have
noted, that is a price level that has been determined roughly by investors’
historical perspective on value. So I would
expect the S&P to have difficulty successfully challenging it. To be sure, equities did exactly that in
1929, 2000 and 2007; but in every case, they simply created a higher cliff to
fall off of.
The
long Treasury took some heat last week apparently the result of investors assuming
that the BOJ and ECB moves to stimulate their respective economies will be
successful in enhancing growth and pushing interest rates up. A notion that I think unlikely. Despite the selloff, TLT remained within its
short term uptrend, its intermediate term trading range and above its 50 day
moving average.
GLD’s
chart remains dismal. It closed within a
short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend and below its 50
day moving average. It is only about 5%
away from the lower boundary of its long term trading range. I think it likely that level will be challenged;
although I have no opinion as to its success or failure.
The
VIX continues to trade within its long term trading range. It is within short and intermediate term
downtrends; but I don’t see those as dominating. That it remains within those downtrends is a near
term positive to stocks. However, I think
that the next really big move to the VIX will be to the upside; I just don’t
have a clue as to when.
Fundamental
The
latest from JP Morgan (medium):
Investing for Survival
Common
mistakes investors make (medium):
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
***overnight,
second quarter Japanese GDP was reported at -7.25% on an annualized basis.
Politics
Domestic
Fake cell towers
with spying capabilities at locations near you (medium, scary and a must read):
International War Against Radical Islam
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