Tuesday, August 26, 2014

McDonalds (MCD) 2014 Review

McDonald’s operates, franchises or licenses more than 35,400 fast food restaurants worldwide.  Over the past ten years, the company has grown profits at a 15% pace but dividends at 26% annualized while earning a 25%+ return on equity.  Looking forward, the pace of advance of dividends should slow somewhat although earnings growth is expected to continue at an above average pace as a result of:

(1) global growth not only in the number of restaurants but also in same store sales,

(2) introduction of new higher margin products [McCafe Real Fruit Smoothies, Frappes, Angus snack wraps],
  
(3) a shift to franchising which accelerates earnings growth.

Negatives:

(1) rising commodity prices and wage costs,

(2) intense competition,

(3) the potential impact on sales of continuing economic malaise.

MCD is rated A++ by Value Line, carries a 46% debt to equity ratio, has an ongoing stock repurchase program and its stock yields 3.2%.

Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

MCD         3.2%           8%                55%             10
Ind Ave      2.4*           10*                44               NA  


                  Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                  Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

MCD         46%             36%            0                 20           A++
Ind Ave      44                25             NA                9           NA
    
*over 50% of the companies in this industry don’t pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note:  MCD stock made great progress off its October 2008 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, it is in an uptrend (blue lines).  In late 2013, it re-set from an intermediate term uptrend to a trading range (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.    The Dividend Growth and Aggressive Growth Portfolios own 50% positions in MCD, having Sold Half in early 2012.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $71; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $109.



8/14

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