Monday, August 18, 2014

Monday Morning Chartology--8/18/14

The Morning Call

8/18/14

The Market
           
    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P bounced nicely last week---thank you, ‘buy the dippers’.  It recovered above the lower boundary of its former short term uptrend, but I am not re-establishing that trend---at least not yet.  It remains below its 50 day moving average and within its intermediate term uptrend.

 Its partner, the DJIA, also closed above the lower boundary of its former short term uptrend, though just barely; and it remained below its 50 day moving average and the lower boundary of its former intermediate term uptrend.  The bottom line is that last week’s pin action repaired some of the damage from the prior week, though not enough to be getting jiggy about.  However, more movement to the upside this week could potentially put stocks back on the path of the endless bull market. 

            HDGE, our short trading position, finished Friday inches above our Stop.  Any further decline and we will eliminate that holding.



            The long Treasury continues to perform very well.  It is within its short term uptrend and above its 50 day moving average.  I am assuming that this is reflective of the awful economic news out of Europe and Japan last week.
            http://blog.yardeni.com/



            GLD remains solidly within a short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.  However, on a very short term basis, there is a lot going on: (1) it closed right on its 50 day moving average, (2) it has negated a short term downtrend and (3) it continues to build a pennant formation.



            As would be expected the VIX fell last week as stocks advanced.  However, it did not break below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend---a modest win for the bears.  Nonetheless, it is well within both short and intermediate term downtrends.



    Fundamental
 
    
      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            ***overnight, the ECB said that it expects EU banks to borrow E250 billion under its ‘targeted long term financing operation’; Russia threatened to ban foreign vehicle sales.

            The S&P and the dollar (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Ron Paul on Iraq (medium):

            Goldman on the economic consequences of conflict in Iraq and Russian sanctions (medium):







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