The Morning Call
8/18/14
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P bounced nicely last week---thank you, ‘buy the dippers’. It recovered above the lower boundary of its
former short term uptrend, but I am not re-establishing that trend---at least
not yet. It remains below its 50 day
moving average and within its intermediate term uptrend.
Its partner, the DJIA, also closed above the
lower boundary of its former short term uptrend, though just barely; and it
remained below its 50 day moving average and the lower boundary of its former
intermediate term uptrend. The bottom
line is that last week’s pin action repaired some of the damage from the prior
week, though not enough to be getting jiggy about. However, more movement to the upside this
week could potentially put stocks back on the path of the endless bull
market.
HDGE,
our short trading position, finished Friday inches above our Stop. Any further decline and we will eliminate
that holding.
The
long Treasury continues to perform very well.
It is within its short term uptrend and above its 50 day moving
average. I am assuming that this is
reflective of the awful economic news out of Europe and Japan last week.
GLD
remains solidly within a short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend. However, on a very short term basis, there is
a lot going on: (1) it closed right on its 50 day moving average, (2) it has
negated a short term downtrend and (3) it continues to build a pennant
formation.
As
would be expected the VIX fell last week as stocks advanced. However, it did not break below the lower
boundary of its very short term uptrend---a modest win for the bears. Nonetheless, it is well within both short and
intermediate term downtrends.
Fundamental
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
***overnight,
the ECB said that it expects EU banks to borrow E250 billion under its ‘targeted
long term financing operation’; Russia threatened to ban foreign vehicle sales.
The
S&P and the dollar (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International
Ron
Paul on Iraq (medium):
Goldman
on the economic consequences of conflict in Iraq and Russian sanctions
(medium):
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