Friday, August 1, 2014

The Morning Call--The key is follow through

The Morning Call

8/1/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16563, S&P 1930) had a rough day.  Both have broken their 50 day moving averages; so now we start to watch their 200 day moving averages.  The S&P broke below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend.  Under the time element of our Time and Distance Discipline, if it finishes below the support level today, the short term trend will re-set to a trading range.  The Dow pushed below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend.  Under our Time and Distance Discipline, if remains below this trend line at the close Monday, its intermediate term trend will re-set to a trading range.  For the moment, the trends are up:  short (16232-17711, 1921-2085), intermediate (16624-20922, 1862-2662) and long (5101-18464, 762-1999).
           
            Not surprisingly, volume was up and breadth was terrible.  The VIX spiked 27%, keeping above its 50 day moving average, within a very short term uptrend and short term and intermediate term downtrends.

            Update on sentiment (short):

            The long Treasury fell but remained above its 50 day moving average, within a short term uptrend (but below the upper boundary of its former short term trading range) and an intermediate term trading range.   Clearly, the damage to the bond market was much less than to equities.  That said there is plenty of bond worriers out there:

            More pessimism (short):

            Counterpoint (short):

            Fitch warns of high yield defaults (medium):

            Getting more correlated with stocks (short):

            GLD continues to mystify, trading down yet again.  It is now below its 50 day moving average and within its short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

Bottom line: the technical picture may be getting a bit less murky assuming that the Averages made a move to sync with all those divergences that I keep harping on.  That said, under our Discipline, which requires follow through, it is premature to be predicting a change in Market direction.  We will have a much clearer picture technically speaking by the close on Monday.  We can then start making some assumptions about price trends.   

I am still watching the bond market closely, though of late it hasn’t been all that clear about investors’ expectations.  Long term, I respect the message of the bond market; it just hasn’t been much help the last month or so.  GLD’s message has never been more obscure.  I am embarrassed to say that I am clueless what is driving gold right now. 

Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news was tilted somewhat to the negative: weekly jobless claims rose slightly more than expected, second quarter employment costs rose more than anticipated and the July Chicago PMI was atrocious.  However, none of this made much difference to investors.

            Overseas, EU inflation numbers are in and they weren’t good, which is to say they were low and fed the fears of deflation.

            ***overnight, Markit released its July PMI numbers:  EU down, Japan down, China up.

            The question on everyone’s minds was what in the world sparked the sharp selloff.  If the Averages had held their primary uptrends, I would be inclined to attribute it to nothing more than a random selloff like we have seen periodically over the last 18 months.  To be sure, stocks could bounce today and in hindsight that will likely turn out to have been the best explanation.  However with so much technical damage, there seems to be more going on. 

Of course, there were multiple thesis presented throughout the day on every media outlet.  I am not going to pretend that I know the specifics that might have caused it but I will give you two possibilities:

(1)   Plosser’s dissent in the FOMC minutes coupled with the strong second quarter GDP number and the higher than expected second quarter employment costs served as the ‘slap in the face’ to the Markets---waking them to the prospect that inflationary pressures are building and the bond market will not stand around and accept unreasonably low rates in that environment.  In other words, our ‘the bond market will have to beat the Fed over the head before its raises rates’ scenario.  As I have said more times than I can count, when the Market realizes that the Fed has botched the transition yet again, equity prices will likely seek lower levels,

The latest from Paul Singer (medium and today’s must read):

(2)   investors have realized that in the Ukraine/sanctions, West/Russian face off, someone will have to blink, that it is probably not going to be Putin, ergo how far is Obama really willing to push before He precipitates a crisis in which He has to blink?  Given His penchant for self-righteousness and His complete lack of experience in managing our foreign affairs, the fear is that He will error and get Himself or, even worse, the rest of us hammered.

All that said, there may be an exit from the current dilemma if these rumors of a deal being negotiated between Germany and Russia are true.  Assuming, of course, that Obama is smart enough to make a graceful exit (medium):

Bottom line: after a day like yesterday, my tendency for the last two years has been to wonder if that decline is the start of the ‘big one’.  As we are all well aware, the dip buyers have made sure that it never was.  And that may happen this time as well.  However, the risks to the economy and the market have continued to grow and worsen even as stocks prices have continued to advance.  Sooner or later, something has to give. 

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.


            Global QE is ending and that has consequences (medium and today’s must read):

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