Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

12/16/13

The Market

           

    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology   

            The trend in the S&P is up across all timeframes; but stocks are too expensive to be chasing.  My best advice is use the strength to lock in profits.

            It’s option expiration week.  Here is December’s history (short):

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/DIA-SPY-December-Option-Expiration-Historically-Bullish

            The long Treasury remains within a short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.  It continues to develop a head and shoulders formation.  The lower boundary of its short term trading range is roughly the ‘neckline’ of that pattern---so a break below that level would be double trouble.

            GLD remains one of the ugliest charts around.

            The VIX continues to trade in a short term trading range.  It has been of little help in determining Market direction for over a year,  It is also in an intermediate term downtrend.

    Fundamental

           

            The Market doesn’t work anymore (medium):

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-is-no-bubble-markets-just-dont-work-anymore-2013-12-11?pagenumber=1    

          Thoughts on the debt ceiling (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/guest-post-who-needs-debt-ceiling

            Money for nothing (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/money-nothing-and-survival-fattest

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The New York Fed’s December manufacturing index came in at .98 versus expectations of 4.50.

            Third quarter nonfarm productivity rose 3.0% versus estimates of +2.8%; unit labor costs were -1.4%, in line.

   Other

            The December EU flash PMI rose while the Chinese flash PMI fell.

            Commercial real estate appears strong (short):

            http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2013/12/commercial-real-estate-looks-strong.html

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/12/quotation-of-the-day-on-the-hopeless-inefficiency-of-sclerotic-government/

  International

            More trouble in the South China Sea (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-13/us-chinese-warships-nearly-collide-south-china-sea

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.