Tuesday, December 3, 2013

The Morning Call & Subscriber Alert

The Morning Call

12/3/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 16008, S&P 1800) took a breather yesterday, though they remained within uptrends across all time frames: short term (15414-20414, 1732-1856), intermediate term (15414-20414, 1646-2227) and long term (5015-17000, 728-1850).

            Volume rose, breadth was terrible.  The VIX rose but continues to meander within a short term trading range.  It finished within an intermediate term downtrend.

            The long Treasury was off, closing within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.  It is still building a head and shoulders formation.

            GLD was whacked by 2%.  It is within short and intermediate term downtrends and is approaching the lower boundary of its long term trading range.  A breach of that level would be very negative for gold.

Bottom line:  I thought that a break by the Averages above the psychologically important 16000/1800 levels would be a precursor to another strong leg up---especially given that the Holidays are historically one of the strongest periods of Market performance.  After five days of a halting advance, yesterday saw the indices back at 16000/1800 and threatening to fall back below.  While there continues to be a number of concerning divergences, I don’t think this pin action a necessarily ominous development; but it does suggest that the bulls are a bit tired, at least on a very short term basis.

It still seems reasonable to assume that there is at least an even chance of another leg up, and the most likely targets, in my opinion, are the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends (17400/1900).  Of course, if that is the case and the downside is simply Fair Value (11575/1436), then the risk reward from current levels is not all that attractive.

As a longer term investor, I think that the aforementioned risk/reward ratio is an invitation to lose money.  I would, however, take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

In the meantime, if one of our stocks trades into its Sell Half Range, our Portfolios will act accordingly.

            More on sentiment (short):
  
            Odds of the S&P winning streak extending to nine weeks (short):

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            We received lots of economic data yesterday.  In the US, the November Markit PMI and the November ISM manufacturing index were both stronger than anticipated; and in a dual month report, September construction spending was weaker than forecast while the October figure was well ahead of estimates.  On the negative side, Thanksgiving weekend sales fell short of expectations.

            ***over night, Cyber Monday sales appear to have made up for the short fall.

            By far the most important number was the ISM manufacturing index; so in one sense, we have to judge the sum total of the stats as a net positive. 

            Overseas, the data was positive with the Chinese PMI well over expectations and the EU PMI slightly ahead of forecast.

            ***over night Spanish unemployment declined.

            With the early news flow to the plus side, stocks were up in morning trading.  However, later in the day, prices got a hitch in their getty up.  There was nothing obvious to explain the sell off unless, in a good news is bad news world, one thinks that it took investors half a day to figure that out.  Personally, I don’t; so I have no good reason for the sell off.

Bottom line: as much as I enjoyed the Thanksgiving holiday, I am not any more positive on equity valuations.  No matter how hard I challenge my own assumptions, I can’t come up with a logical scenario that values the S&P at 1800.  Perhaps more important, our Valuation Model has placed many of our holdings at or above their Sell Half Range---meaning that the ‘over valued’ conclusion is not a function of one or so indices, it is a function of valuations of each of the stocks in our Universe.

So as an investor not a trader, my long term strategy calls for me to sit on my hands until valuations return to normalcy.

            The Fed now owns one third of the bond market (short):

            Emergency aid, unemployment and Fed policy (medium):

            The latest from Bill Gross (medium and a must read):

            Update on valuation:

     Subscriber Alert

            During a recent valuation analysis, Atrion (ATRI---$279) and Altera (ALTR---$32) both failed to meet the necessary quality standards to qualify for inclusion in the Aggressive Growth Universe.  As a result, the Aggressive Growth Portfolio will Sell its positions in ATRI and ALTR at the open this morning.

            The stock price of ITC Corp (ITC---$91) has traded below the upper boundary of its Buy Value Range.  Accordingly, ITC is being Added to the Dividend Growth Buy List.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio does not own ITC and will not Buy shares at this time.

     Investing for Survival

            Year end tax tips (medium):

            http://www.cnbc.com/id/101106191



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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