The Morning Call
The Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
Last
week was not an atypical Thanksgiving holiday week; and there may be more of
the same ahead as the Santa Claus rally takes over. The S&P clearly (1) took out the very
short term downtrend, (2) bounced off the lower boundary of its intermediate
term uptrend---adding strength to this support line, (3) is now challenging the
upper boundary of its short term downtrend.
It needs one or two more days to confirm any break, (4) still remains
below its 50 day moving average [red line].
All in all not a bad week technically speaking. The only negatives are (1) the rally was on
very low volume and (2) a lot of shorts got squeezed. We are back to the real world today; so we
will know better if there is any follow through to last week’s strong
performance.
GLD
also had a good week. It is now in a
very short term uptrend. More important,
it broke through its 50 day moving average.
I want to see the pin action today; but if GLD holds or advances, our
Portfolios will likely begin buying back their trading position.
The
VIX took a tumble, as you might expect.
It has eliminated the very short term uptrend and confirmed trading
below its 50 day moving average---both a positive signal for stocks. Nonetheless, it remains in the ever narrowing
zone between the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and the lower
boundary of its intermediate term trading range.
Fundamental
Headlines
Soaring
stock prices aside, last week wasn’t that positive event-wise. True the housing data was very encouraging;
but we needed that to stay on course in our own forecast. Other than that:
(1)
more yakking, no action on the fiscal cliff; and this
week Obama starts a nation-wide tour to lock in His position, giving Himself
less room to compromise.
(2)
Bernanke basically said that the Fed doesn’t have the
tools to save the US
(3)
The eurocrats failed not once, but twice to settle on a
solution for Greece Spain
(4)
hostilities in Gaza Egypt
Bottom
line: not much has changed except stock prices.
They are now right on Fair Value which is not a great incentive to Buy.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
More
on the Fed’s disastrous monetary policy (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical Islam
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