Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Morning Call--Is there really hope for a compromise?

The Morning Call

11/8/12

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 12932, S&P 1394) celebrated Obama’s victory and a solution to the current Greek sovereign debt problem by executing a waterfall formation.  A number of technical factors to note: (1) the S&P clearly couldn’t hold 1422, (2) both  of the Averages penetrated the lower boundary of their respective short term trading ranges [12973-13661, 1395-1474] (3) the Dow broke its 200 day moving average [12991] though the S&P remained above its respective indicator [1381] (4) both remained above the lower boundaries of their intermediate term uptrends [12706-17706, 1340-1936].

            Conclusions: (1) the 13302/1422 resistance level clearly demonstrated some strength, (2) the lower boundaries of the short term trading ranges are now being seriously challenged.  Our time and distance discipline is now operative; a break will be confirmed either by both of Averages remaining below 12973/1395 through next Monday or the decline falling a further 1-2% whichever comes first, (3) the DJIA and the S&P are now out of sync on their 200 day moving averages; they need to return to harmony before any conviction about Market direction relative to this support level can develop.

            Volume rose; breadth deteriorated.  The VIX surged 8% leaving it above its 200 day moving average, the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.  It remained below the upper boundary of its short term downtrend but it is approaching it.  This indicator is now neutral/negative.  In addition, Apple stock, a Market leader until very recently, continues a vicious decline---not a positive sign.

            GLD rose, finishing above the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend for the second day.  Under our time and distance discipline that is sufficient time for a very short term trend to be confirmed as broken.  However, it failed to penetrate the interim resistance level (167.3); so I am still reticent to get too jiggy about a turnaround until the resistance level gets taken out.  GLD remained well above the lower boundaries of its short term uptrend and its intermediate term trading range.

Bottom line:  stocks went from challenging a resistance level (13302/1422) to busting through a primary support level (12973/1395).  Of course, follow through is necessary; so it is too soon to predict lower prices.  On the other hand, significant technical damage has been done; hence if the 12973/1395 level eventually holds, it will indicate a fair amount of technical strength. 

At yesterday’s close, the S&P is trading right at Year End Fair Value.  That doesn’t argue for lower prices; but if 12973/1395 gives way, there is no reason to believe that prices couldn’t go down another 5-7% without getting wildly undervalued.

            Margin calls could become a problem (short):

            Update on the Shanghai Composite (short):


    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Our only economic indicator yesterday was another secondary one---weekly mortgage and purchase applications.  In addition, as a very short term datapoint, it reflected the impact of Sandy.  So like the weekly retail sales number on Tuesday, this has little meaning.

            Of course, the big US political news was the election results.  As I am sure you know, the airwaves were packed with opinions of what it all means.  Forgetting all the forecasts, the immediate problem that must be dealt with is the fiscal cliff.  The consequences of not doing so are estimated to be a reduction in 2013 GDP growth of 2-4%---so failure to address this issue would be problematic. 

            The concern is that given that nothing has really changed in the Washington power structure since the original deal that set up the fiscal cliff (spending cuts and tax increases in exchange for a rise in the debt ceiling) was made, that it will be not be easy to undo.  That, of course, doesn’t mean that a compromise can’t be struck.  Indeed, the most meaningful political action of day was a speech from Boehner in which it extended an olive branch to Obama suggesting that tax increases could be negotiated in exchange for spending cuts. 

Whether Obama decides to remain an ideologue or to start building his legacy as a leader will likely be the key factor in the outcome; and like Boehner, His acceptance speech Tuesday night offered hope for compromise.  We would all love that to happen; and  I am open to accepting that as a possible scenario.  Indeed, the whole rather dismal economic forecast that I laid out in yesterday’s Morning Call is a ‘grand bargain’ (tax reform and spending cuts) away from starting the US on a more pro growth economic path.  However, I just don’t think that we should be betting our money on this story book ending---at least not yet. 

Unfortunately, we are more likely to get some bastardized version that is a cross between falling off the cliff and the ‘grand bargain’ and we may not get it until the very last minute.  That suggests two things: if our political class repeats its historic behavior pattern (1) it will scare the living s**t out of taxpayers/investors before any deal is done, and (2) it will be such lame ass excuse for a solution [more spending just not as much, tax increases just not as much] that the economy is will still likely experience some of the negative effects of the fiscal cliff anyway, to wit, a slowdown in an already paltry rate of economic growth.

Even more regrettable, there remains a decent probability that our elected representatives will hold their ideological ground and run the US off the cliff to spite themselves and us lowly plebeians.

Meanwhile, across the pond, the masses are growing restless---riots in Athens (***overnight, the Greek parliament passed the austerity package), disharmony within the EU power structure and gosh only knows what will happen next in Spain.  As bad as the consequences of falling off the ‘fiscal cliff’ maybe, falling dominoes in Europe are even worse.  If the eurocrats don’t get their act together and soon, we will be kissing our hopefully strengthening economy farewell.

Bottom line: unfortunately, the election didn’t help us much.  Yeah we now know the identity of the new president and congress.  But nothing changed; meaning the White House still holds a left wing ideologue and Washington is still in gridlock---which does nothing to relieve the uncertainty on the fiscal cliff nor does it relieve anxiety over rising taxes, rising regulation and imprudent monetary/fiscal policies.  And if that wasn’t enough, the eurocrats seem bound and determined to turn the southern half of their continent into a giant clusterf**k. 

While some of this is reflected in our Models, the worse case (fiscal cliff and the fall of Spain) is not.  Hence, even though stocks are hovering near Fair Value, I think an above average cash position is appropriate.

            What is driving equity valuation (medium and a must read):

            More (short):

            Thoughts from an optimist (short/medium):

            More thoughts on the viability of dividend paying stocks (short):
           
            News Alert: the Bank of England questions the viability of QE (medium):

                The latest from Marc Faber (10 minute video):

                        The latest from Charles Biderman (6 minute video):

                        The latest from David Rosenberg (medium):


      Investing for Survival

            What yesterday means (medium and today’s must read):
            http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332626/what-2012-election-means-mackubin-thomas-owens

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