The Morning Call---The tariff timebomb

 

The Morning Call

 

7/18/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/hedge-funds-hammered-goldilocks-data-sends-rate-cut-odds-reeling

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Today is July option expiration day. Expect volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/28-trillion-reasons-worry-about-todays-opex

 

            Morgan Stanley warns.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-quants-warn-market-inflows-starting-slow-reveal-favorite-bearish-hedge

 

            But Citadel still positive.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadels-rubner-says-market-has-higher-then-lower-vibes

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

June housing starts were up 4.6% versus forecasts of up 2.7%; building permits were up 0.2% versus -1.7%.

 

                          The July housing index came in at 33, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-july-2025

 

                        International

 

May EU YoY construction output was up 2.9% versus expectations of up 2.7%.

 

June Japanese CPI rose 0.1%, in line.

 

June German PPI was up 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy rates declined 3.2% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-32-year.html

 

                          Consumers consuming, employers employing.

                          Trump Dealing ... Consumers Consuming ... Employers Employing

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The case for cutting rates. Good points. Missing in this argument is any mention of long term rates which are telling us that the bond market is more worried about inflation than recession. You know how I feel about the bond market.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/17/trumps_pressuring_aside_its_time_for_the_fed_to_cut_1123127.html

 

              Yesterday’s data suggest little reason for a rate cut.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-jobs-and-spending-numbers-suggest-little-need-for-an-imminent-rate-cut?post=509921

 

              China just lit a match under global liquidity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spark-global-liquidity-has-just-been-lit

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s dueling economic policies will inevitably collide.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/07/15/trump-tariffs-stock-market

 

            Inflation

 

              The case for low inflation.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/07/inflation-remains-low.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              The tariff time bomb.

              https://www.independent.org/article/2025/07/16/tariff-time-bomb/

 

            Geopolitics

 

Recent assessment says only one of the Iranian nuclear sites was completely destroyed.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/us-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iranian-nuclear-sites-intel-assessment

 

     Investing

 

              The AI bubble is bigger than the IT bubble.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/ai-bubble-today-is-bigger-than-the-it-bubble-in-the-1990s/

 

              Ethereum trust-ware has bright future.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/ethereums-trustware-era-could-push-eth-over-15k-consensys

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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