Investing for Survival: The Morning Call---The pain trade is higher

The July flash manufacturing PMI was 54.6 versus predictions o 52.9; the flash services PMI was 55.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 54.6 versus 52.9.

International

June UK retail sales grew 0.9% versus forecasts of +1.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6% versus +1.2%; the July consumer confidence index was -19 versus -20.

July Japanese YoY CPI was up 2.9% versus projections of +3.1%; YoY core CPI was +2.9% versus +3.0%.

The July German business climate index was 88.6 versus estimates of 89.0; the July current conditions index was 86.5 versus 86.7.

Other

Mortgage delinquencies slightly higher in June.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/ice-first-look-at-june-mortgage.html

Overnight News

The dollar gained after Donald Trump downplayed his clash with Jerome Powell over the Fed’s renovation costs, saying it wasn’t reason enough to fire him. Trump said during his visit to the Federal Reserve that it is a tough construction job, while Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three names in mind for Powell's replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire Powell which would be a big move.

The U.S. has collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has largely shouldered the bill for now, but that could change as firms gradually adjust prices to account for the new tariffs that are the highest level we have seen in decades.

India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they'll be able to conclude a "very consequential partnership".

Monetary Policy

Why Trump is wrong about monetary policy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-tread-carefully-with-this-strange-dollar?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

The Fed’s dilemma over tariff tradeoffs.

https://www.ft.com/content/90652405-89af-44e4-9ff4-314dbe1125ef

Fiscal Policy

What if the only tax was a national sales tax?

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/24/a_case_for_the_sales_tax_as_the_most_honest_form_of_taxation_1124549.html

Tariffs

Trump’s tariff deal with Japan is a loser for Americans.

https://reason.com/2025/07/23/trumps-deal-with-japan-is-another-loser-for-americans/

Tariffs don’t make American cars great again.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/tariffs-dont-make-american-cars-great-again/

Investing

Beware meme stocks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/business/opendoor-krispy-kreme-meme-stocks.html

The best time to invest.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-best-time-to-invest/

Crashing in the absence of an actual market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crashing-absence-actual-market

Investors regaining confidence in the economy.

Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Friday morning humor.

10 Ways An AI Wife Is Better Than A Real One | Babylon Bee

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Friday, July 25, 2025

The Morning Call---The pain trade is higher

No comments:

Post a Comment

About Me

My Blog List