The Morning Call
3/20/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-gold-crypto-soar-powell-put-appears
Bond volatility
fades as S&P declines.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-bond-fear-fade
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 223,000
versus estimates of 224,000.
The March Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index came in at 12.5 versus projections of 8.5.
International
The January UK
unemployment rate was 4.4%, in line; average earnings rose 5.8% versus +5.4%.
January EU construction
output was flat versus consensus of +0.2%.
The February
German PPI was -0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%.
Other
Wednesday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-18th-2025/
Economic policy
uncertainty as a leading indicator of business investment and consumer spending.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/policy-uncertainty-business-investment.html
Overnight
News
Trump’s tariffs
are forcing Chinese exporters to look for alternative markets, potentially
unleashing a new “China Shock” that will claim millions of jobs in emerging
economies from Mexico to Indonesia.
Monetary
Policy
The FOMC wrapped up
its March meeting on a somewhat dovish note. While it left rates unchanged, it
(1) noted increased economic uncertainty [dovish], (2) lowered its GDP growth
estimate [dovish], (3) lowered the runoff of QT [dovish] but (4) raised its inflation
estimate [hawkish]. Formal statement below.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-26
The Street’s reaction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-bond-fear-fade
The Fed’s dilemma.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-dilemma
Update on M2.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
Bank of England leaves rates unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-keeps-rate-hold-8-1-vote
Recession
Update on big four recession indicators.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/18/the-big-four-recession-indicators
Tariffs
Sharing the benefits of trade more evenly.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/sharing-the-benefits-from-trade-more-evenly/
Investing
The outlook for dividends in 2025.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
If the Market were less volatile, returns
would be lower.
Pluses and minuses in current bitcoin demand.
Gold and bitcoin: price versus values.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/price-vs-value-will-gold-hit-3460?post=487344
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