Thursday, March 20, 2025

The Morning Call---Street reaction to FOMC meeting

 

The Morning Call

 

3/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-gold-crypto-soar-powell-put-appears

 

            Bond volatility fades as S&P declines.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-bond-fear-fade

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 223,000 versus estimates of 224,000.

 

The March Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 12.5 versus projections of 8.5.

 

                        International

 

The January UK unemployment rate was 4.4%, in line; average earnings rose 5.8% versus +5.4%.

 

January EU construction output was flat versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

The February German PPI was -0.2% versus expectations of +0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-18th-2025/

 

Economic policy uncertainty as a leading indicator of business investment and consumer spending.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/policy-uncertainty-business-investment.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Trump’s tariffs are forcing Chinese exporters to look for alternative markets, potentially unleashing a new “China Shock” that will claim millions of jobs in emerging economies from Mexico to Indonesia.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC wrapped up its March meeting on a somewhat dovish note. While it left rates unchanged, it (1) noted increased economic uncertainty [dovish], (2) lowered its GDP growth estimate [dovish], (3) lowered the runoff of QT [dovish] but (4) raised its inflation estimate [hawkish]. Formal statement below.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-26

 

              The Street’s reaction.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/big-bond-fear-fade

 

              The Fed’s dilemma.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-dilemma

 

              Update on M2.

              https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

 

              Bank of England leaves rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-keeps-rate-hold-8-1-vote

 

            Recession

 

              Update on big four recession indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/18/the-big-four-recession-indicators

 

            Tariffs

 

              Sharing the benefits of trade more evenly.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/sharing-the-benefits-from-trade-more-evenly/

 

     Investing

 

             The outlook for dividends in 2025.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

              If the Market were less volatile, returns would be lower.

              https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/03/18/if-equity-markets-didnt-fall-as-much-their-returns-would-be-lower/

 

              Pluses and minuses in current bitcoin demand.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-whales-are-back-could-this-be-the-catalyst-for-the-next-rally?post=487433

 

              Gold and bitcoin: price versus values.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/price-vs-value-will-gold-hit-3460?post=487344

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The key to a healthy gut.

            https://www.nationalgeographic.com/health/article/gut-health-plant-based-diet?loggedin=true&rnd=1742336806817

 

 

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