The Morning Call
3/26/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Elliott Wave analysis
of gold.
Elliott Wave
analysis of bitcoin.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 2.0% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
The January Case
Shiller home price index was up 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%.
February new home sales rose 1.8% versus
predictions of +0.5%.
February durable
goods orders were up 0.9% versus consensus of down 1.0%; ex transportation, they
were up 0.7% versus +0.2%.
March consumer confidence came in at 92.9
versus expectations of 94.0.
The March Richmond
Fed manufacturing index was -4 versus estimates of +8.
International
The January
Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 108.3 versus projections
of 108.0.
February UK CPI
was up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.5%; core CPI was also up 0.4% versus +0.5%.
Other
Analysis of Monday’s PMI readings.
Overview of the housing market.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-housing-market-continues-its-slow.html
Monday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-24th-2025/
Consumer spending slowing according to credit
card company.
The economy is slowing but recession risks remain
low.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-is-slowing-but-recession-risk-remains-low/
Commercial real estate delinquency rates
increased in Q4.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commercial-real-estate-delinquency-rates-increase-4th-quarter
Overnight
News
GOP leaders said
they’re getting close to agreeing on a plan to pass an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and an increase to
the debt ceiling. The CBO will today release its estimate for when the debt
ceiling will be reached.
Fed's Goolsbee
(2025 voter) said it may take longer than anticipated for the next cut to come
because of economic uncertainty and ‘wait and see’ is the correct approach when
facing uncertainty. Goolsbee also commented that market angst over inflation
would be a red flag and believes borrowing costs will be a fair bit lower in
12–18 months, while he noted that if investor expectations begin to converge
with those of American households, the Fed would need to act:
Fiscal
Policy
The inconsistencies in Trump’s tariff/weak dollar
scheme.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-risky-plan/?src=news
Here is a
progressive response to DOGE. It would take me several pages to address the
arguments presented; but I leave it to you to make your own judgment.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/satyajit-das-doge-the-accelerant-in-american-decline.html
More needed on infrastructure improvement.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/25/business/economy/us-infrastructure-federal-cuts.html
Goldman
dissects Trump’s economic plan.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-economic-plan-goldmans-ways-play-it
Tariffs
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/03/quotation-of-the-day-4959.html
Trade war explodes across the globe.
Goldman predicts what to expect on April 2nd.
Investing
Leave being
bullish or bearish to the media.
In praise of dividend growth stocks.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/03/investing-risks-and-returns-by-dividend.html
There are now real
alternatives to the US stock market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/are-there-now-real-alternatives-us-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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