The Morning Call
3/13/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Bottom not yet in.
Are we there yet?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-position-intel-hedge-funds-and-ctas-much-move-could-be-over
Excellent reasons to both buy and sell.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/equally-fine-arguments-both-sides
Another breakout imminent
in gold?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-consolidate-break-out-repeat-next-surge-imminent
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 220,000
versus estimates of 225,000.
February PPI was flat
with January versus expectations of up 0.3%; core PPI was down 0.1% versus
+0.3%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/core-producer-prices-tumbled-most-covid-lockdowns-february
International
January EU industrial production was up 0.8% versus
consensus of +0.6%.
Other
Inside the CPI index.
More
analysis of yesterday's CPI number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/february-cpi-very-good-report-with-even.html
Overnight
News
Senate Republicans
are planning tax reductions that go well beyond an extension of President Trump’s expiring tax cuts. On
the menu: Reviving lapsed business tax breaks, expanding the child tax credit,
loosening the cap on the state and local tax deduction and incorporating
Trump’s ideas for eliminating taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security
benefits, said Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R., Idaho), who ticked
through a list of ideas Wednesday that could easily top $5 trillion or more
over a decade.
On the back of
Trump’s Yale CEO caucus meeting Tuesday, while CEOs have largely been quiet,
they affirmed that things would have to get significantly worse to publicly
criticize the President. Asked how much the stock market would need to decline
for them to speak out collectively, 44% said it would have to fall 20%. Another
22% said stocks would have to fall 30% before they would take a stand.
US Treasury
Secretary Bessent spoke with congressional leaders about making Trump tax cuts
permanent and said that is what they will deliver.
Monetary
Policy
Treasuries pricing in higher odds of a rate
cut.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-market-pricing-in-higher-odds-for-rate-cuts/#more-23686
Bank of Canada cuts rates.
Fiscal
Policy
Senate refuses to pass budget continuing resolution.
The February budget deficit was $307 billion
versus forecasts of -$303 billion.
Recession
The latest from Jeffrey Gundlach (there is an
obvious misprint on timing).
Jeffrey
Gundlach Says U.S. Now Has A 60% Chance Of Recession
Ed
Yardini joins Jeff, raising his odds of recession.
Tariffs
This
is a different take: the real problem with tariffs is that they are not high
enough.
The Mar-a-Lago accords.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/what-is-the-mar-a-lago-accord/
Canada strikes back.
So does the EU.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-steel-no-exemptions-6ed95f5b?mod=economy_lead_story
As usual congress abrogates its duties.
Bill Dudley: tariffs will be worse for the
economy than the Markets think.
Investing
An interview with
Kevin Duffy.
https://themarket.ch/interview/kevin-duffy-i-think-the-markets-are-heading-for-trouble-ld.13363
Resist the urge to
buy the dips.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/djia-avoid-the-urge-to-buy-the-dip?post=486357
Certainty is now a scare resource.
https://www.ft.com/content/c4c3eb94-494b-4009-87b0-5a75c1d642e5
Mind the anxiety
gap.
https://tonyisola.com/2025/03/mind-the-anxiety-gap/
The future is no
longer science fiction.
Bitcoin---selling the news.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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