The Morning Call---For better or worse, Trump now owns this economy

 

The Morning Call

 

7/10/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-tech-leads-stocks-higher-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Momentum meltdown just getting started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momentum-meltdown-just-getting-started-ms-quants-warn

 

            On the other hand…

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/easy-money-forced-buyers-melt-mirage-mind-trap-doors

           

            And.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/great-set-melt-trade

 

            Is the ‘Trump collar’ about to lapse?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-collar-has-saved-stocks-seasonality-vol-about-turn-higher

 

            The latest from one Goldman trader.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedges-h2-goldman-outlines-troublesome-tails-ahead

 

            But here is another with a different take.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/summer-carry-not-priced-top-goldman-macro-trader-says-dont-fight-tape

 

            An optimistic note from Ed Yardini.

            Uncertainty & Breadth

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 227,000 versus consensus of 235,000.

 

                        International

 

                          June Japanese PPI came in at -0.2%, in line.

 

                          June German CPI was +0.1%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The betting markets’ predictions on economic and financial issues.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/betting-market-economic-and-financial-predictions-09-july-2025/#more-24256

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. (1) they have no idea what the impact of tariffs will be, (2) they do think that the economy is slowing, and (3) they expect QT to end next February.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-11

 

              Abundant versus scarce reserves.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/chairman-powells-curious-case-for-abundant-reserves/

 

              Are lower rates the cure for inflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/might-lower-rates-be-cure-higher-prices

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              For better or worse, Trump now owns this economy.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/us/politics/trump-bill-tariffs-economy.html

 

              As usual, the liberal fear mongers are focusing on the wrong thing.

              https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotlines/were-all-going-to-die-from-the-big-beautiful-bill/

 

            Tariffs

 

It is a very rare occurrence that I would link to a Paul Krugman op ed. But here is one I generally agree with.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-tariff-beatings-will-continue

 

              The only winner is the government.

              https://reason.com/2025/07/08/the-only-winner-is-the-government-says-american-bow-tie-ceo-facing-higher-tariff-costs/

 

              The paradox of Trump’s trade policy.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/07/08/trump-tariffs-august-1-deadline

 

     Investing

 

              Either the stock market or the bond market is wrong.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/inconsistent-markets/

 

              Gold as a safe asset.

              https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/07/gold-as-safe-asset-alternative-to-debt.html

 

              Real interest rates are a catalyst for a dollar bounce.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real-rates-are-catalyst-near-term-dollar-bounce

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declared $1.08/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Alexander the Great’s path to power.

            How Alexander the Great's daddy issues reshaped the world | National Geographic

 

            The swamp always wins.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/swamp-always-wins-why-outsiders-break-when-they-enter-washington

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Dollar bears beware

 

The Morning Call

 

7/9/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/violent-moves-hedge-funds-hammered-shorts-squeezed-momo-meltdown-returns

 

                        Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Dollar bears beware.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-bears-beware-youre-not-early

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/market-has-ignored-worsening-macro

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior    week.

 

 Weekly mortgage applications rose 9.4% while purchase applications were   up 9.0%.

 

                          Consumer credit card debt unexpectedly plunges.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-card-debt-unexpectedly-plunges-student-loans-soar

 

                        International

 

                          June Chinese CPI came in at -0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%.

 

  June Japanese YoY machine tool orders fell 0.5% versus predictions of +3.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Real time civilian employment past peak?

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/real-time-civilian-employment-at-peak

 

                          Update on Q2 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/rebound-outlook-softens-for-us-q2-gdp-nowcast/

 

                          Wholesale used car prices up 6% in June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/wholesale-used-car-prices-increased-in.html

 

                          Housing market at risk of a severe downturn.

                          https://www.axios.com/2025/06/24/housing-market-price-growth-april

 

            Inflation

 

              What a depreciating dollar means for inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-10-depreciation-in-the-dollar-will-boost-inflation-by-0-3-percentage-points/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Government debt is now $37 trillion. Should we be worried?

              https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1lj8rmyn5eo

 

              The Market will tell us when we have borrowed too much.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/08/markets_will_tell_us_when_weve_borrowed_too_much_1120497.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s Vietnam agreement bodes poorly for future trade deals.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-vietnam-agreement-bodes-poorly-future-trade-deals

 

              Tariff uncertainty weighs on global growth.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/tariff-uncertainty-likely-to-weigh-on-global-growth-even-after-extended-talks-6111469a?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Peak chaos theory confirmed.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-peak-chaos-theory-confirmed?post=508096

 

     Investing

 

            A preview of second quarter earnings.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/08/2q-earnings

 

            Gold as a safe asset alternative to debt.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/07/gold-as-safe-asset-alternative-to-debt.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The end of the stock market as we know it.

            https://gizmodo.com/the-end-of-the-stock-market-as-we-know-it-2000625351

 

            It is already happening in the bond market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/24133257-62eb-41f5-9778-0be200fd3b7d

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---This isn't how you lower interest rates

 

The Morning Call

 

7/8/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tariff-tantrum-20-sends-stocks-bonds-lower-oil-dollar-surge

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Pay attention to the Japanese bond market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tickticktick-japan-bond-markets-fuse-lit

 

***This is a very detailed explanation for the above. You may just want to read the conclusion.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-japans-rice-price-shock-lead-government-collapse-and-spark-global-bond-crisis

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The June business optimism index was reported at 98.6 versus consensus of 98.7.

 

                        International

 

The May German trade balance was E18.4 billion versus predictions of E15.5 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Unemployment claims as a recession indicator.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/07/recession-indicator-unemployment-claims-civilian-labor-force-june-2025

 

                          Lumber prices up 26% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/update-lumber-prices-up-26-yoy.html

 

                          Home prices continue to cool.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/july-ice-mortgage-monitor-home-prices.html

 

            Overnight News

 

 US President Trump said regarding tariffs that the August 1st deadline is firm but he is open to other ideas, while Trump said he is close to making a trade deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some countries.

 

White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to August 1st.

 

US reportedly offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, although negotiations are still fluid, with any trade agreement subject to final approval by US President Trump, according to POLITICO.

 

EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must show strength in trade negotiations with the US. Thereafter, German Finance Minister says if the EU does not reach a "fair" deal with the US, the bloc is ready to take countermeasures.

 

Japanese Tariff Negotiator Akazawa held a call with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Agreed to actively engage in trade negotiations. Auto sector is core to Japan's economy, cannot tolerate the fact 25% tariffs on autos, and the auto parts tariff is inflicting huge losses on Japanese firms. No point in striking a US deal without an autos agreement.

 

South Korea will step up trade negotiations with the US to win mutually beneficial results and clear up uncertainties caused by tariffs, while it added that trade talks with the US will be a chance to advance both countries' key industries through the 'Renaissance Partnership'.

 

The UK is set to miss the original deadline to close its steel/aluminum trade deal with the US, according to Sky's Conway; Insiders say still some way from a breakthrough. However, "they are hopeful Donald Trump won't raise UK tariffs from 25% to 50% for the time being, despite having promised to on July 9th".

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Trump’s destructive fight with the Fed over interest rates.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/trumps-self-destructive-fight-with-the-fed-for-low-interest-rates-his-fiscal-dominance-game-of-chicken.html

 

              Marking the progress of QT.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/03/fed-balance-sheet-qt-13-billion-in-june-2-31-trillion-from-peak-to-6-66-trillion-new-milestone-3-years-of-qt/

 

              This isn’t how you lower interest rates.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-07/trump-and-interest-rates-this-isn-t-how-you-lower-them?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

Bessent attempts to sell the big, beautiful bill. For some reason he left out the big, beautiful deficit.

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/president-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-unleash-parallel-prosperity

 

              Why social security is going bust?

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-peak-65-moment-and-why-social-security-is-going-bust/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump extends tariff deadline to August 1^st.

              https://www.ft.com/content/613678ac-2e61-436b-9d0f-2a8f85a20dee

 

              There is more.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trade-tariff-recap-all-eyes-todays-12pm-signed-letters-announcement

 

     Investing

 

              At the crossroads.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/07/at-crossroads

 

              Sentiment for stocks too high?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sentiment-for-stocks-too-high?post=507876

 

              Goldman looks at Q2 earnings season.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-earnings-bulls-welcome-another-low-bar-watch-out-tariff-margin-compression

 

              BofA still BTFD.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bofa-bets-btfd-resiliency-asymmetric-options-trade

 

              The bond market’s struggle to price conflicting risk factors.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-market-will-struggle-to-price-in-conflicting-risk-factors/

 

              Diminishing returns from alternative investments.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/diminishing-returns-for-university-endowments-09284794?st=JUT4Ku&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        What makes someone ‘cool’?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/well/mind/cool-people-traits-study.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.