The Morning Call--Are we in a bubble?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/27/21

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                 

                  Monday in the charts.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-drop-crypto-pop-reflects-crazy-people-running-system

 

                  Yields setting up for a surge?

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c7iswkp5zk

 

            Market Bubble?

 

                  The psychology of a stock market bubble.

                  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-psychology-of-a-stock-market-bubble-11619198164

                 

                  The Mother of all Meltups?

                  http://blog.yardeni.com/2021/04/running-of-bulls.html

 

                  Wild ride lifts everything.

                  https://www.wsj.com/articles/wild-market-ride-lifts-everything-from-lumber-to-stocks-to-bitcoin-11619343001?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

                  Are we in a bubble?

                  https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/are-we-in-a-bubble/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales continue to advance at a rapid pace.

 

The February Case Shiller home price index rose 1.2% versus +0.9% in January.

 

The April Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 37.3 versus 28.9 in March.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/26/april-dallas-fed-manufacturing

                               

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          New home prices.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/04/new-home-prices.html

 

                          Update on seven high frequency indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/04/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_26.html

 

            Biden’s Plan

 

              Biden’s tax proposals just keep on coming.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/04/26/president_bidens_tax_hike_hits_keep_on_coming_774286.html

               

Inflation

 

              Investors shore up defenses against inflation.

              https://www.ft.com/content/fd30060f-cb7a-43b1-83aa-410b60a7dc1c

 

              The rise in commodity prices.

              https://sentimentrader.com/blog/commodities-havent-done-this-in-50-years/

 

              Sticker shock at the grocery store.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/higher-prices-grocery-store-ag-futures-surge-most-8-years

 

              More of global ag prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-global-inflation-about-go-overdrive

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The Fed can’t fix this.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-cannot-fix-next-bear-market-will-not-be-last

 

            Forward return expectations continue to fall.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forward-return-expectations-continue-fall

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.23 misses by C$0.03; GAAP EPS of C$1.37 beats by C$0.11.

Revenue of C$3.54B (-0.3% Y/Y) misses by C$30M.

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.06 beats by $0.41; GAAP EPS of $1.51 beats by $0.05.

Revenue of $4.66B (+12.3% Y/Y) beats by $150M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.77 beats by $1.05; GAAP EPS of $5.47 beats by $3.79.

Revenue of $22.91B (+27.0% Y/Y) beats by $2.17B.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Eight of the most notorious Ponzi schemes.

            https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/24/business/famous-ponzi-schemes-generation-hustle/index.html

 

                A brief biography of Adam Smith.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/theorising-around-the-theory-of-moral-sentiments

 

            Safe speech versus free speech.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/04/safe-speech-vs-free-speech-higher-educations-false-dilemma.html

 

            When things go too far.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ucla-students-are-claiming-automatic-soap-dispensers-are-racist

 

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