The Morning Call--Bonds are a warning sign

 

The Morning Call

 

4/30/21

The Market

         

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-panic-bid-eu-close-after-biden-induced-breakdown

 

            Bonds in retreat after FOMC meeting.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2dc29002-a101-4ecc-a5d3-bd438bf511bb

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

                          March pending home sales rose 1.9% versus estimates of +5.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/29/pending-home-sales-up-1-9-in-march

 

March personal income was up 21.1% versus expectations of +20.3%; personal spending was up 4.2% versus up 4.1%; the PCE price deflator  was +0.5% versus +0.2% in February; the core PCE price deflator was +0.4% versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6% versus predictions of 2.9%; March industrial production was +2.2% versus -2.0%; March YoY housing starts were up 1.5% versus -7.4%; March construction orders were +12.5% versus 2.5% in February; April consumer confidence was 34.7 versus 36.1 in March; the April manufacturing PMI was 53.6 versus 53.3.

 

The March EU unemployment rate was 8.1% versus consensus of 8.3%; April CPI was 0,6% versus 0.9% in March; Q1 flash GDP growth was -0.6% versus -0.8%

 

The April Chinese manufacturing PMI was 51.1 versus forecasts of 51.7; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 54.9 versus 56.3 in March; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.9 versus 50.8.

 

Q1 German flash GDP growth was -1.7% versus projections of -1.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Some detail on yesterday’s initial Q1 GDP report.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/04/29/an-inside-look-at-the-gdp-q1-advance-estimate

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation, the steamroller.

             https://www.epsilontheory.com/manheim-steamroller/

 

              Consumer goods prices are going up.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/business/consumer-goods-prices.html

 

              Signs to watch for increasing inflationary pressures.

              http://www.capitalspectator.com/waiting-for-the-inflation-canary-to-sing-or-not/

 

            Biden’s Plan

 

Private equity/hedge funds having a hissy fit over the proposed elimination of ‘carried interest’ favorable tax treatment.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/04/private-equity-and-hedge-fund-barons-having-a-hissy-over-carried-interest-grift-because-biden-isnt-staying-bought.html

 

            The coronavirus

 

              Just how bad were all those doomsday projections?

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/04/visualizing-icls-pandemic-models.html#.YIr3mpBKiUk

 

     Bottom line.  Bonds aren’t overvalued; they are a warning sign.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-bonds-arent-overvalued-theyre-warning-sign

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $0.815/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.65 beats by $0.05; GAAP EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.07.

Revenue of $59.15B (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $2.61B.

 

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW): Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.11 beats by $0.21.

Revenue of $3.5B (+8.4% Y/Y) beats by $60M.

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.95 beats by $0.12; GAAP EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.52.

Revenue of $13.01B (+50.9% Y/Y) beats by $230M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2021/04/quotation-of-the-day-3511.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

 

 

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