Friday, September 27, 2019

The Morning Call---Still more trade happy talk


The Morning Call

9/27/19

Off to pledge class reunion. No Closing Bell.

The Market
         
    Technical

            The Averages (26891, 2927) were off slightly yesterday on lower volume (pretty soon there won’t be any) and poor breadth.  The VIX was up 5/8% but remains below both MA’s---a plus for stocks.  My directional assumptions remain that short term the 9/4 gap up opens need to be filled but longer term the momentum is to the upside.

            The long bond bounced (+5/8%) after Wednesday’s drubbing.  GLD didn’t---down four cents.  And the dollar continued its winning way (up ¼%).  Long term, these charts remain solid; though trading in the last week has been confusing.

            Here is an easily understood explanation of the repo market and one that is more sanguine than some of the other links that I have included.

            ***overnight, dollar shortage eases.

            China’s looming dollar debt problem.

            Fed policy and gold.

            Thursday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s data releases were generally upbeat: August pending home sales, the September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index and the August trade deficit were better than anticipated; final Q2 GDP growth was in line; while weekly jobless claims and the Q2 PCE price indicator had unfavorable comparisons.

            Again, nothing from overseas except this from Ed Yardini.

            About the only headline (as opposed to real news) was more happy talk on US/China trade.  This time for the Chinese foreign minister.

            Bottom line: it looks like this week’s economic stats will again be positive.  The US is going to need it, given the data releases from the rest of the world.  Still it reinforces my conviction that the US will not experience a recession; but if it does, it will likely be a mild one.  That said, equity valuations are extreme for even this upbeat scenario.  Of course, that doesn’t matter; nor apparently the low probability of a successful conclusion to the US/China trade standoff; nor the dems seemingly driving to the hoop to impeach Trump for whatever reason they can fabricate.  All that matters is an easy Fed.  But when that story ends, there will only be one out the door first; everyone will feel the pain.  It makes sense to me to reduce that potential pain by having some cash as a margin of safety.

                Peak buybacks?

            Prepare now for the end of the bull market.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
            AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.51/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            August pending home sales were up 1.6% versus forecasts of +0.9%.

            The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 11 versus estimates of -3.9.

            August durable goods orders rose 0.2% versus consensus of -0.1%; ex transportation they were +0.5% versus +0.2%; ex defense, they were -0.6% versus +0.1%.

            August personal income was up 0.4%, in line; personal spending was up 0.1% versus up 0.3%.

     International

            August YoY Chinese industrial profits fell 1.7% versus projections of -2.0%.

            September EU consumer confidence was 19.5 versus an anticipated 20.0; business confidence was -.22 versus +.11; economic confidence was 101.7 versus 103.0; industrial sentiment was -8.8 versus -6.0; services sentiment was 9.5 versus 9.3.

    Other

            How accurate is Chinese data?  I have raised the question numerous times.  This is the first attempt that I have seen to quantify the answer.

            An example of why public employee pension plans are bankrupting municipalities.

What I am reading today

            If the world is ending in twelve years, why go to college?
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




No comments:

Post a Comment