The Morning Call
9/23/19
The
Market
Technical
After a brief
follow through from the September 4th gap up open, the S&P has
struggled to regain its former all-time high.
That is the bad news. The good
news is that it is above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes. The latter carries a lot more weight; so, the
assumption is that it will continue to advance.
Further since that 9/4 gap open needs to be filled, I can easily envision
a scenario in which that occurs and then the S&P resumes its upward
momentum
The long bond
continues to stabilize after the early September plunge---which is quite positive
given that it never really challenged any major support levels (MA’s and uptrends). It is a bit too soon to assume that it will
regain its upward momentum. But we are
not that far away.
Ditto gold.
As I have noted,
the early September volatility the dollar experienced was a lot more subdued
than TLT and GLD and it stabilized much quicker. The assumption is that UUP will continue to
rise. Helping that along is the dollar
funding problem that arose last week and appears likely to continue this week.
The VIX spiked 9%
on Friday, though it remains below both MA’s.
However, it is near its 100 DMA; and a move above it would start to
point to more downside for equities.
Fundamental
Headlines
Smokescreen out of
Saudi Arabia.
Still no smoking
gun on Saudi attack.
Trade talks back
on.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
August Chicago national activity index came in at +0.1 versus expectations of
-0.35.
International
The
September German flash manufacturing PMI came in at 41.4 versus forecasts of
44.0; the services PMI was 52.5 versus 54.3, the composite PMI was 49.1 versus
51.5
The
September EU flash manufacturing PMI was 45.6 versus estimates of 47.3; the services
PMI was 52.0 versus 53.3; the composite PMI was 50.4 versus 51.9.
Other
South
Korean exports collapsing.
$28
billion in farm aid so far.
Chinese
firms dump $40 billion in global assets.
The
Bank of International Settlements warns of trouble as the amount of yielding bonds continues to rise.
What
I am reading today
Viking
invaders brought armies of mice.
Public employee pension
plans going broke and this is just the beginning.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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