Monday, September 23, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

9/23/19

The Market
         
    Technical

            After a brief follow through from the September 4th gap up open, the S&P has struggled to regain its former all-time high.  That is the bad news.  The good news is that it is above both MA’s and in uptrends across all timeframes.  The latter carries a lot more weight; so, the assumption is that it will continue to advance.  Further since that 9/4 gap open needs to be filled, I can easily envision a scenario in which that occurs and then the S&P resumes its upward momentum



            The long bond continues to stabilize after the early September plunge---which is quite positive given that it never really challenged any major support levels (MA’s and uptrends).  It is a bit too soon to assume that it will regain its upward momentum.  But we are not that far away.
           


Ditto gold.



As I have noted, the early September volatility the dollar experienced was a lot more subdued than TLT and GLD and it stabilized much quicker.  The assumption is that UUP will continue to rise.  Helping that along is the dollar funding problem that arose last week and appears likely to continue this week.



            The VIX spiked 9% on Friday, though it remains below both MA’s.  However, it is near its 100 DMA; and a move above it would start to point to more downside for equities.



    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Smokescreen out of Saudi Arabia.
           
            Still no smoking gun on Saudi attack.
           
            Trade talks back on.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
           

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The August Chicago national activity index came in at +0.1 versus expectations of -0.35.

     International

            The September German flash manufacturing PMI came in at 41.4 versus forecasts of 44.0; the services PMI was 52.5 versus 54.3, the composite PMI was 49.1 versus 51.5

            The September EU flash manufacturing PMI was 45.6 versus estimates of 47.3; the services PMI was 52.0 versus 53.3; the composite PMI was 50.4 versus 51.9.

    Other

            South Korean exports collapsing.

            $28 billion in farm aid so far.

            Chinese firms dump $40 billion in global assets.

            The Bank of International Settlements warns of trouble as the amount of  yielding bonds continues to rise.

What I am reading today

            Viking invaders brought armies of  mice.

            Public employee pension plans going broke and this is just the beginning.

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