The Morning Call
2/25/19
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P remains on a tear. In closed
back on the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, stopping the clock
on Thursday’s challenge (the Dow was unable to regain its comparable boundary,
voiding its very short term uptrend).
However, it remained below its prior lower high (2800) though the Dow
ended (26031) above its comparable boundary (25977). The Averages need to get back in sync before
there is directional clarity, though the weight right now is on further upside
and a likely a challenge of their all time highs.
While
the long bond has performed well since resetting its short term downtrend to a
trading range, it has now negated its very short term uptrend and looks to have
formed a triple top (there are no quadruple tops).
While
the dollar is strong on an intermediate term basis (i.e. above both MA’s and in
a short term uptrend), the most distinguishing characteristic of its current
chart is the trading range it has been in since last November. To remain positive, sooner or later, it has
to successfully challenge the upper boundary of that trading range.
GLD’s
chart remains strong. While last week
was volatile, no technical damage was done.
The
VIX’s chart continues to deteriorate as stocks soar. It is now in a very short term downtrend.
Fundamental
Headlines
***overnight:
(1)
Trump says oil prices too high
(2)
Trump extends March 1st deadline for tariff
increases.
Will
an earnings recession result in an economic recession?
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
January Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -.43 versus estimates of
+.30; the December reading was revised from +.27 to +.05.
International
Other
What
I am reading today
Merkel draws the line
with Trump.
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