Sunday, February 24, 2019

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

2/23/19

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     14088-30287
Long Term Uptrend                                  6585-29947
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Trading Range                          2349-2942
                                    Intermediate Trading Range                        1338-3148                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     913-3073
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                        2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           56%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        56%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The data flow this week was positive: above estimates: the February housing market index, weekly mortgage/purchase applications, weekly jobless claims, month to date retail chain store sales, the February flash composite and services PMI’s; below estimates: January existing home sales, the February flash manufacturing PMI, the February Philly Fed manufacturing index, January leading economic indicators; in line with estimates: December durable goods/ex transportation.

However, the primary indicators were negative: January existing home sales (-), January leading economic indicators (-) and December durable goods/ex transportation (0).  This week is a close call: negative.  Score: in the last 176 weeks, fifty-seven positive, seventy-nine negative and forty neutral.

The data from overseas this week was mostly negative (again) and, clearly, is another impediment to our own economy’s struggle to sustain growth.  Certainly, a positive result from the US/China trade talks will help.

My forecast:

Less government regulation, Trump mandated spending cuts, (hopefully) getting out of the Middle East quagmire and possible help from a fairer trade regime are pluses for the long-term US secular economic growth rate.

However, the explosion in deficit spending, especially at a time when the government should be running a surplus, is a secular negative.  My thesis on this issue is that at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets (1) any stimulative benefit of tax cuts and (2) the secular positives of less government regulation and fairer trade [at least on the agreements that have been renegotiated].

On a cyclical basis, the economic growth rate is slowing as the effects of the tax cut wear off and the global economy decelerates.  There appears to be an increasing risk that the economy may not be as strong as even my forecast has portrayed it.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking [financial] system.

EU banks are the most successful Ponzi scheme of all time.

Fitch warns of a potential problem for collateralized loan obligations.

(2) fiscal/regulatory policy. 

Trade remains front and center.

[a] the US/China trade talks.  It looks like progress is being made.  China trade officials were in the US this week, following a similar meeting in China last week.  Plus, China’s top trade official met with Trump on Friday.  In addition, Trump hinted that the March 1 deadline for the imposition of additional tariffs on China was not firm, an indication of goodwill if negotiations remain fruitful.  That said, the only thing concrete that we have is that six memoranda of understanding are being worked on, one of which is that China will increase its purchases of US agricultural products, i.e. in my opinion, a bribe for leniency on industrial policy and IP theft,

As of Friday afternoon, Trump and Xi are negotiating the terms of a potential meeting between the two.

[b] the US/EU trade talks.  Threats were exchanged centered on auto tariffs but that is all that occurred---hot tongue.

As you know, I have been supportive of Trump’s effort to negotiate fairer trade deals, correcting the disparities that grew up in the post WWII world.  If he is successful, I believe that it will be a plus for US secular economic growth. 

Bottom line: whatever the positive impact that might to come from a US/China trade deal, irresponsible deficit spending will restrain US economic growth.

(2)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created  asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

The major headline this week was the release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting which confirmed the easier monetary policy implications of the changed narrative from Fed officials in the last month.  Most important, a drastically altered QT is officially on the agenda of the March FOMC meeting. 

Of course, the Fed wasn’t the only central bank signaling easier monetary policy.  Both the ECB and the Bank of Japan jumped on board this week; and that follows the huge injection of liquidity into its financial system by the Bank of China last week. 

I don’t want to be repetitive but, if QE returns, my takeaways are:

[a] easier central bank monetary policy will not improve the prospects for economic growth,

[b] it leaves the mispricing and misallocation of assets as a risk that must ultimately be dealt with; though I have no clue as to when that could happen,

[c] it leaves the central banks with two potential problems {i} if inflation accelerates, they will ultimately be compelled to tightening policy irrespective of Market reaction or {ii}if economic growth continues to decelerate, the ineffectiveness of QE (along with central bank omniscience) will become increasing obvious; and if the Markets lose the faith, look out below,

[d] I know that this all sounds very negative; but I remind you that the Fed has never, ever, ever in its history managed a successful transition from easy to normal monetary policy.  To be sure, it could do it this time; but the weight of history suggests otherwise.

(3)   geopolitical risks: 

Europe is a mess with Brexit, riots in France and fiscal policy discord in Italy; and it continues to be reflected in a negative way in the economic stats.

Plus, you never know how the situation in Venezuela plays out.

(4)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were again negative, continuing to point to a global economic slowdown:  

[a] the February EU flash consumer confidence was down but not as much as expected; the February EU and German flash composite and services PMI’s were above estimates but their manufacturing PMI’s were negative, Q4 German GDP showed no growth,

[b] December Japanese machine orders fell: the February Japanese flash manufacturing PMI fell into contraction range; its January trade deficit rose.

            Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate.  Although some recent policy changes are plus for secular growth, they are being offset by a totally irresponsible fiscal policy. 
          
Cyclically, the US economy is once again slowing as evidenced by the data from both here and abroad. As a result, my initial US 2019 economic growth rate assumption is at risk of being too optimistic.

          Finally, any move to a more dovish stance by the Fed is not likely to have an impact, cyclical or secular, on the economy.  QE II, III, and Operation Twist didn’t, and QE IV probably won’t either.   Meaning that if the Fed thinks backing off QT will help support economic growth, in my opinion, it will be disappointed.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 26031, S&P 2792) continued their relentless move higher.  However, certain aspects of their charts are now out of sync: (1) the S&P regained the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, the Dow didn’t, voiding that trend, while (2) the Dow ended above its prior lower high (25977); the S&P did not. To be sure, the current upward momentum will likely resolve this hitch in directional clarity to the upside; but it still must get done.

Volume rose slightly and breadth improved, though the flow of funds indicator is not acting well.

The VIX was down 6 ½%, mirroring the surge in stocks.  Adding to the already poor performance of its indicators, it has now established a very short term downtrend.

The long bond recovered ½ %, but couldn’t recover the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend (voiding that trend).  Further, it has made a triple top---not a positive technical occurrence.  The concern here is that it could be losing the upward momentum established after it reset its short term trend to a trading range. 

The dollar was down one cent, ending above both MA’s and within a short-term uptrend.  It remains stuck in that November to present trading range.

GLD rose, its chart remains strong.

 Bottom line: the Averages just can’t stay down.  They are now somewhat out of sync as the pace of the advance differs with respect to some key technical levels.  However, my assumption is that those divergences will resolve themselves to the upside.  If so, then the next stop is their all-time highs.
              
          Gold’s chart remains strong; UUP is stuck in a range and the long bond may be starting to suggest that rates could be moving up.

                    Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model), the improved regulatory environment and the potential pluses from trade and spending cuts notwithstanding.  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing---which the trend in the dataflow suggests is meager.  The risk is that it may not be that good.

In addition, the results from the Q4 earnings season as well as the forward guidance provided by companies suggest that the next couple of quarters could be disappointing.

My thesis is that the financing burden now posed by the massive [and growing] US deficit and debt is offsetting the positive effects of deregulation and fairer trade and will continue to constrain economic as well as profitability growth.

In short, the economy is not a negative [yet] but it is not a positive at current valuation levels.
           
(2)   the success of current trade negotiations.  If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost surely be a plus for secular earnings growth.  The current trade talks with China clearly hold promise.  Any deal will be a short term plus assuming it leads to an increase in trade.  But I worry that the Chinese out ‘art of the deal’ Trump and there will be little progress on the long term problems---industrial policy and IP theft.
(3)   the resumption of QE by the global central banks.  If QEII, QEIII and Operation Twist are any guide, they should be a big plus for the Markets, at least in the short term.
(4)   current valuations. the Averages have recouped much of their October to December loss and appear on their way to regaining even more.  Since they were grossly overvalued [as determined by my Valuation Model] in October, they are now just slightly less grossly overvalued.  That said, if the latest central bank liquidity surge continues, valuations will remain irrelevant.

As prices continue to rise, I will again be focusing on those stocks that trade into their Sell Half Range and act accordingly.

Bottom line: while fiscal policy is negatively impacting the E in P/E, a new regulatory regime, any improvement in our trade regime with China along with proposed spending cuts should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations.  More important, a global central bank ‘put’ appears to be returning and, if history is any guide, will almost assuredly be a plus for stock prices. 

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2019 Year End Fair Value*              14600             1800
Fair Value as of 2/28/19                                 14016            1724
Close this week                                               26031            2792

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.








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