The Morning Call
1/7/19
The
Market
Technical
Quite a
Friday. The news flow was an investor’s
wet dream: strong employment data, a Fed that is ‘listening to the Market’ and US/China
talks beginning today. While neither
volume or breadth were all that impressive for a 3 ½ % up day, the S&P managed
to negate its very short-term downtrend, then set a new higher low and a new
higher high---all of which suggest some near term follow through to the
upside. However, lots of work needs to
be done to re-establish an uptrend.
TLT
gave back all of Thursday’s gain though on less volume. Nonetheless, the current strong uptrend is not
in danger of being challenged.
The
dollar was off four cents on Friday, but remained above both moving averages, within
a short-term uptrend and a developing consolidation range. Nothing in its performance suggested investors
are less worried about liquidity problems.
Certainly, its pin action was somewhat calm on a huge risk-on day.
Like
the dollar, GLD was down as you would expect on a risk-on day. However, there is no real danger of breaking
its very short-term uptrend.
As you might expect,
the VIX was down on Friday; but the chart is still a strong one. The VIX remains in very short term and short-term
uptrends and above both moving averages.
Fundamental
Headlines
US/China trade talks kick off today. Here’s the latest.
The
dangers in the EU financial system.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
International
The December Japanese
services PMI was 51.0 versus November’s 52.3; the composite PMI was 52.0 versus
November’s 52.4.
November German
factory orders fell 1.0% versus expectations of -0.3%.
November EU
retail sales were up 0.6% versus estimates of +0.2%.
Other
November
median household income.
Global
update from the American Economic Conference.
What
I am reading today
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