The Morning Call
5/14/18
The
Market
Technical
It
was a noteworthy week for the S&P, having broken to the upside out of a
four and one half month pennant formation.
It also finished above its 100 day moving average for a second day (now
resistance; if it closes there through the close today, it will revert to
support). Once that MA has been
overcome, the next meaningful resistance level is its last all-time high.
The
long Treasury had a good three day bounce off the lower boundary of its long
term uptrend. On Friday, it touched a
minor resistance level. Even if it
succeeds in pushing higher, it still faces its 100 and 200 day moving averages
and the upper boundary of a short term downtrend. In other words, the momentum on a long term
basis is to the downside (higher rates).
The
dollar unsuccessfully challenged the upper boundary of its intermediate term
trading range. Given the recent upward
momentum, it will likely make another try.
In the meantime, it has continuing support from its 100 and 200 day
moving averages.
Gold
had a decent week, bouncing off of its 200 day moving average and the lower
boundary of its short term trading range.
Nevertheless, it couldn’t push through its 100 day moving average. Right now, it seems pretty much tied to the
performance of TLT and UUP, both of which had countertrend moves last week.
The
VIX had a rough week as you might expect.
It is now below its 100 day moving average (now resistance), its 200 day
moving average for a third day (now support; if it remains there through the
close today, it will revert to resistance) and the lower boundary of its short
term trading range for the second day (if it remains there through the close
today, it will reset to a downtrend). I
have marked the downtrend since early February as a very short term downtrend;
but if the short term trend resets, it will become the short term downtrend. This pin action points to higher stock prices.
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ECB
member says end of QE is drawing nigh (medium):
Trump
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QE
and the banks (medium):
What
I am reading today
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HSBC completes first finance/trade
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