The Morning Call
1/29/18
The
Market
Technical
Again,
no comment required.
The
long Treasury continues its downward drift, closing back below its 200 day moving
average, thereby negating Thursday’s push above it. While still in a technical no man’s land, the
very short term momentum is to the downside.
Despite
all attempts to walk back Mnuchin’s weak dollar comments, the dollar still
closed lower on Friday. This is not a
pretty chart. However, given that TLT
and UUP tend to trade in tandem (i.e. higher interest rates usually means a
stronger dollar), the latest inverse pin action is a reason to pay
attention. One of these seems likely to
reverse.
Gold
is having a nice run. That is not that unusual
when the dollar is being hammered.
However, it is when interest rates are rising. I continue to be uncomfortable with the
technical backdrop to this Market.
The
VIX was down on Friday, in line with its normal relationship with stock
prices. It closed right on the lower boundary
of its recently reset short term trading range.
Its pin action remains a bit confusing.
Fundamental
Headlines
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
December
personal income rose 0.4% versus expectations of up 0.3%; personal spending
increased 0.4% versus estimates of up 0.5%; the PCE indicator was up 0.1%, in line.
International
Other
Update
on auto loans (medium):
What
I am reading today
Nouriel Roubini on crypto
currencies (medium):
You are ordering wine wrong
(medium):
Belguim, how low can a low country
go? (medium):
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