The Morning Call
1/22/18
The
Market
Technical
As
has been the case of late, I will let the chart tell you all need to know.
The
long Treasury continues to weaken. It is
still in a no man’s land (between the upper boundary of a very short term
downtrend and its 100 and 200 day moving averages on the upside and the lower
boundaries of its short term trading range and its long term uptrend on the
downside) though clearly it is moving into the lower level of that range, nearing
the lower boundary of its short term trading range. It broke below its 200 day moving average on
Friday; if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will revert to
resistance.
The
dollar tried to stabilize last week but couldn’t generate enough energy to
rally.
This chart makes pretty poor
reading if you own dollars---which we all do.
Reagan used to say that the dollar was the stock of a country. A strong dollar meant global investors want
to own the US and vice versa. As I noted
in Saturday’s Closing Bell, a continuation of this decline will, at some point,
force the Fed raise interest rates (to defend the dollar) irrespective of what
is occurring in the economy; and depending of the UUP’s rate of decline, much
more aggressively than it might want.
GLD
has been on a good run. Now it is
challenging the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend. Typically, it trades inversely to bonds and
the dollar, which would suggest more room on the upside.
The
VIX pushed out of its short term downtrend and re-set to a trading range. However, Friday’s negative pin action puts it
near the lower boundary of that newly re-set short term trading range as well
as its 100 and 200 day moving averages (both now support).
Fundamental
Headlines
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
December Chicago Fed’s national activity index came in at .27 versus
expectations of .25.
International
Other
The
Fed is scared of crashing the financial system (medium):
What
I am reading today
Why you should be working
less (medium):
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