The Morning Call
6/19/17
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P remains in a slow and steady short term uptrend dating back to early
March and long term uptrend above its moving averages and within uptrends
across all timeframes. There no technical
reason to believe that it won’t reach the upper boundary of its long term
uptrend (2763).
The
long Treasury continues to do well. It finished Friday above its 200 day moving
average for the third day (if it remains there through the close today, it will
revert to support) and the upper boundary of its short term downtrend for the
third day (if it remains there through the close today, it will reset to a
trading range). It seems bond investors
don’t anticipate stronger economic growth/rising inflation.
GLD’s
recent pin action has not been that great.
Clearly the upper boundary of its short term trading range offers stiff
resistance. On the other hand, gold has
made a series of higher lows; plus the 100 day moving average has crossed above
the 200 day moving average---usually a positive technical sign. Still in an environment of lower rates, a
declining dollar and all modes of political turmoil both in the US and
internationally, it ought to be much stronger.
Despite
a brief rally last week, the dollar’s generally soft performance continues. Like TLT, it is pointing to a weak economy,
low inflation and stable to lower interest rates.
The
VIX seems stuck between its 100 and 200 day moving averages and the lower
boundaries of its intermediate and long term trading ranges. That suggests a Market that continues to a
nonvolatile drift---though that drift could be directional; in this case to the
upside.
Fundamental
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Other
More
problems in the Chinese financial system (medium):
Politics
Domestic
More millennial snowflake
madness (medium):
International War Against Radical
Islam
The
cost of appeasement (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-18/germany-police-powerless-against-middle-eastern-crime-gangs
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