The Morning Call
6/12/17
The
Market
Technical
Nothing
has really changed about the S&P as far as all its trends go. The one distinguishing element in this chart
is Friday’s price action. The price range
for that day was very wide with the highest price being above Thursday’s high
price and the lowest price below Thursday’s low price. In addition, it closed below Thursday’s close. In technical parlance, that is called an
outside day to the downside and as the name suggests usually means that the
near term Market direction is lower. It
also occurred on volume, meaning that this wasn’t a chance circumstance on a
lazy summer day. So the odds are on for
a down day today and then we just have to pay attention to the magnitude and
volume of any follow through.
The
long Treasury had a down week, though it wasn’t dramatically so. Still, it couldn’t progress far enough to
challenge its short term downtrend not could it hold above its 200 day moving
average. The gap between the upper boundary
of its short term downtrend and the lower boundaries of its very short term and
long term uptrends continues to narrow.
How this developing pennant formation gets resolved may determine the
longer term direction of TLT.
The
dollar’s pin action was the mirror image of the TLT---moving up for most of the
week. But it did nothing to alter its
overall negative technical status---below its 100 and 200 day moving averages
and in a very short term downtrend.
GLD
followed TLT price pattern, though it was much more dramatic move to the
downside, having bounced off the upper boundary of its short term trading range
for a second time and closing below the lower boundary of its very short term
uptrend for a second day, negating that trend.
It did manage to remain above its 100 and 200 day moving averages; and
the 100 day moving average is about to cross above its 200 day moving
average---usually a positive sign.
However, GLD has clearly lost some upward momentum.
The
VIX had an extremely volatile day on Friday, largely spawned by the whackage in
the FANG stocks. The issue today and
this week will be whether the dip in the tech stocks has any follow
through. Notice that the bounce on
Friday ended the fourth unsuccessful challenge of the lower boundaries of the
intermediate and long term trading ranges.
Fundamental
Headlines
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This Week’s Data
Other
An
analysis of last week’s JOLTS report (short):
Not
only are tax receipts slowing at the federal level, they are also off at the
state level (medium):
Credit
card defaults rising (medium):
Politics
Domestic
Quote of the day
(short):
International War Against Radical
Islam
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