The Morning Call
1/30/17
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P continues in uptrends across all timeframes. So it seems reasonable to assume that it will
take out 2300. But so far it hasn’t,
despite the Dow’s successful challenge of 20000. Until that occurs, in my opinion, it diminishes
the strength of the Dow’s break, however, jiggy investors may be feeling.
The
long Treasury voided a five week uptrend last week, leaving it solidly in a
downtrend on a very short term (six months) basis. It is now approaching the lower boundaries of
its short and intermediate term trading ranges and its long term uptrend. That is a lot of support in a very confined
area, suggesting that bonds are apt to flatten out, at least in the short term,
and could make a bottom.
GLD’s
chart continues to resemble TLT’s. Last
week, it broke a recent uptrend which was fighting against declining 100 and
200 day moving averages and a short term downtrend. Also like TLT, it has near in support---the
lowest Fibonacci line is also the lower boundary of its intermediate term
trading range.
The
dollar was flat last week. It is now
trading in a narrowing range bounded by the upper boundary of a very short term
downtrend on the upside and its 100 day moving average on the downside,
supported further by the 200 day moving averages and the lower boundary of its
short term uptrend. Note that it appears
to have bounced off the level of a prior low.
That is not major support but would gain strength if UUP breaks above
the upper boundary of its very short term downtrend.
The
VIX (10.6) has been getting hammered. It
is below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and within very short term and
short term downtrends. Note its
proximity to the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range---a
support level going back 10 years.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
latest update on Trump immigration ban (medium):
Clinton
on illegal immigrants (short):
Uh
o, tax reform delayed?
The
latest from David Rosenberg (medium):
Investing for Survival
The
myth of passive indexing.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
December
personal income rose 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.4%; personal spending was
up 0.5%, in line.
***overnight,
January EI industrial confidence and economic confidence were better than
estimates while services confidence was below.
Other
Crude
oil production in the US at 10 month high (short):
Update
on auto loans (short):
US/UK
begin negotiating a trade deal (short):
How
long can Chinese debt continue to grow )medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-29/how-long-can-chinas-debt-continue-grow-systemic-debt-crisis
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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