The Morning Call
1/17/17
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday Morning Chartology
The
S&P remains in uptrends across all timeframes including a very short term
uptrend. All that suggests that it will
challenge 2300.
Friday’s
selloff in TLT was its first major hiccup in a month; but the uptrend is firmly
in place. That said, longer term it is
below its 100 and 200 day moving averages and in a short term downtrend. The unusual technical aspect of this chart is
that TLT has plenty of room to keep rallying before it challenges any of its
major timeframes to the upside.
GLD
has been diverging from TLT a bit lately.
Still it is very similar---it bounced up off the lower boundary of its
intermediate term trading range, faces major resistance from its 100 and 200
day moving averages and a short term downtrend but still has room to move up
substantially before challenging those resistance levels.
The
dollar’s chart remains the inverse of TLT---in a downtrend but with a lot of
distance between its current price and any support. Notice that TLT bounced up off the lower
boundary of its short term trading range to start its uptrend; while UUP
bounced down off the upper boundary of its intermediate term trading range.
(must read)
And (must read)
The
VIX (11.2) continues to linger near the lower boundary of its intermediate term
trading range (10.3)---a support level that dates back ten years. In other words, the 2007 top. Still it is below its 100 and 200 day moving
averages and in a short term downtrend.
The question is, what gives?
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Donald was busy this long weekend. In
addition, to raining on Ryan’s border adjustment tax parade and talking down
the dollar, he took a big shot at NATO and Germany (medium):
Merkel’s response
(medium):
Saudis
suggest that the oil production cut could end by mid-year (short):
UK
PM says both houses of parliament will vote on Brexit (medium):
***overnight,
the IMF raised its US GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018; January German
investor confidence soared; UK inflation rose the most in 2 ½ years; EU auto
sales hit a nine year high.
The
latest from Goldman (medium):
Investing for Survival
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
January NY Fed manufacturing index cam e in at 6.5 versus expectations of 8.0.
Other
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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