The Morning Call
3/28/16
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The
S&P sold off but not that much---given the extreme overbought condition at
the end of last week. That is good news
along with the facts that it (1) has busted above numerous resistance levels
and remains above visible support [100 day moving average and a Fibonacci support
level. The bad news is that most of the
advance was on low volume and not particularly great breadth. Plus, very short term, it has voided an
uptrend. The assumption has to remain
that it will challenge its all-time high until/unless it negates the
aforementioned support levels.
The
long Treasury acted very well this week.
It stabilized after a six week decline, voiding a very short term downtrend
and holding above a key Fibonacci support level---not the kind of pin action
you would expect in a week in which three Fed officials trumpeted the need for
additional rate hikes.
GLD
underwent more consolidation this week.
It remains well within a short term uptrend and above its 100 day moving
average. However, there is no visible
near in technical support, so there could be more downside.
The
VIX basically supported the above observations on the S&P. It could not rally sufficiently to void a
very short term downtrend. Any move to
the 10-12 level would represent an opportunity to buy portfolio insurance inexpensively.
Fundamental
***overnight,
China reported an increase in industrial profits in February; however, the New
York based China Beige Book reported capex at its lowest level in the history
of the survey (five years) and employment at a four year low.
Update
on Buffett indicator (short):
Investing for Survival
Investor
self-deception.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AT&T
(NYSE:T) declares $.48/share quarterly dividend, in line with
previous.
Forward yield 4.94%
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
January US trade deficit was $60.0 billion versus expectations of -$62.5
billion. However, its makeup was not so
hot: exports were down 2.9% while imports were down 1.5%.
February
personal income rose 0.2% versus estimates of up 0.1%; spending was up 0.1%, in
line; the PCE deflator was -0.1%, also in line.
Other
Here
is a breakdown of the fourth quarter GDP number reported Friday morning
(medium):
Another
thought on the trade deficit (short):
Politics
Domestic
The GOP
governors at a brokered convention (medium):
Another Obama
false equivalency (medium):
The absurdity of
feigned offense has reached a new high (medium and a candidate for Monday
morning humor if it weren’t so tragic):
International War Against Radical
Islam
Marines
enter combat in Iraq (short):
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