The Morning Call
3/31/16
The
Market
Technical
The indices
(DJIA 17716, S&P 2063) had another good day with both resetting very short
term uptrends. Volume remained low but breadth
improved. The VIX (13.5) fell 2%, resetting
a very short term downtrend that it voided Monday. While it remains well below its 100 day
moving average and within a short term trading range, it is nearing the 10-12
attractive price range.
The Dow closed
[a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200 day moving
average, now support, [c] in a short term a trading range {15431-17758}, [c] in
an intermediate term trading range {15842-18295} and [d] in a long term uptrend
{5471-19343}.
The S&P
finished [a] above its 100 day moving average, now support, [b] above its 200
day moving average, now support, [c] within a short term trading range {1867-2081},
[d] in an intermediate term trading range {1867-2134} and [e] in a long term
uptrend {800-2161}.
The long
Treasury fell 1%, but remains above a Fibonacci support level and continues to
form a very short term uptrend.
GLD declined 1 ½
%, trading back below a key support level and re-opening the possibility of
more consolidation.
Bottom line: the bulls remain in control, though the volume
and breadth may not be as strong as they would like. Nonetheless, they drawing closer to the upper
boundaries of their recent consolidation range.
My assumption, at this point, is that there is a strong probability that
those boundaries will be successfully challenged which would clear the way for
a run at their all-time highs.
IPO
market looks like 2009 (short):
Fundamental
Headlines
Yesterday’s
economic stats were mixed: weekly mortgage and refi applications were down but
the more important purchase applications were up, the March ADP private payroll
number was less than expected. So far
this week’s numbers have been mixed to positive; but Friday is a big data day
and will likely determine the trend for the week.
Overseas,
Japanese February industrial was down big; and the Asian Development Bank
lowered its forecast for Chinese GDP growth for 2016 and 2017.
***overnight,
March EU inflation declined 0.1%; S&P lowered China’s credit rating and
March German unemployment was unchanged from February.
Bottom
line: the main theme of the day was the wonderment
over the Yellen hawk smack down. What
nobody talked about was why she did it and what its practical implications are,
to wit, if she is concerned enough about the global economy to aggressively rule
out a 25 basis point rate hike, shouldn’t somebody be worried about what that
means for corporate profits with stock prices inches from their all-time
highs?
Yellen’s
gamble on inflation (medium):
In my opinion,
the current rally represents an excellent opportunity to raise cash reserves by
selling either a portion of your profitable investments and/or sell your
losers.
Investing for Survival
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
·
Revenue of $752.6M (+6.9%
Y/Y) beats by $1.4M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
Weekly
jobless claims rose 11,000 versus expectations of up 1,000.
Other
US
housing is 14% overvalued, so says BofA (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
Putin apparently
lied about withdrawing from Syria (medium):
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment