The Morning Call
1/19/16
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday Morning Chartology
The
S&P had another rough week. It took
out the early January low and mounted an unsuccessful challenge to the lower boundary
of its intermediate term trading range.
Given that failed effort and the S&P’s extremely oversold condition,
a big bounce is likely. However, big it
may be, I think a re-test of 1867 is probable.
The
long Treasury had a great week on big volume.
It is now challenging the upper boundary of its very short term trading
range; if it closes there at the close today, the trend will reset to an
uptrend.
With
all the turmoil in the Markets, it is surprising to me that GLD still can’t get
out of its own way. Its inability to
advance like the relative sluggish performance of the VIX indicates a lack of
anxiety.
The
rise in the VIX reflects the lousy pin action.
Notice that despite the Averages testing their August 2015 lows, the VIX
did not test its respective high---which suggests to me that investors are more
complacent than they were in August.
That is not a plus.
Fundamental
***overnight,
fourth quarter Chinese GDP was up 6.8% but that is the slowest rate of growth
in 25 years; in addition, December Chinese industrial output, retail sales and
fixed investments were below expectations.
The IMF lowered its 2016/2017 global growth estimates.
An
interview with Art Cashin (medium):
Italian
banks in trouble (medium):
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
The
immigration problem in Europe (medium):
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