The Morning Call
1/11/16
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
You
don’t need this chart to tell how ugly last week’s pin action was. However, it helps to tell you the extent of
the ugliness. The S&P: (1) blew
through its 100 day moving average, which is now resistance and headed lower,
(2) successfully challenged its short term trading range, resetting to a
downtrend; indeed the damage was so extensive, the S&P closed below what
would logically be the lower boundary of its new short term downtrend, (3) will
successfully challenge of its intermediate term uptrend unless it rallies 22
points today.
I also marked
the 1867 support level. If that doesn’t
hold, 1576 is the next visible support level (versus current Fair Value of
1528).
The
January barometer (short):
The
long Treasury acted reasonably well through last week’s carnage in the stock
market. It likely reflected a ‘safe
haven’ trade. However, if the economy is
indeed heading toward a recession, it will probably gain additional strength.
Despite
its recent effort to rally, GLD remains below its 100 day moving average (which
continues to decline) and within short term, intermediate term and long term downtrends.
The
VIX is clearly reflecting the turmoil in the stock market. It is in an uptrend going back to October
2015 and its 100 day moving average is now support.
Fundamental
Another
Fed banker admits ‘we got it wrong’ (medium):
Why
stock buybacks will likely decline despite more attractive prices (medium):
Investing for Survival
The
problem with chasing performance in any form.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
Problems
in the emerging markets (medium):
Problems
in Portuguese banks (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
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