The Morning Call
11/30/15
The
Market
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
Despite
all the recent the post mid-November euphoria, the S&P looks to be making a
lower high; not good for those looking for new highs.
Counterpoint
(short):
The
key in this chart is the battle TLT is having with its 100 day moving
average. If it can’t successfully
challenge it, then rates seem likely to rise; if not, then down---which would
suggest recession.
Is
this an ugly chart or what? How many
times have I said that in the last year and a half?
The
VIX remains in a short term downtrend (good for stocks); but really it is
simply trading in the range set in mid-2012.
Fundamental
Last
week became the third down data week in a row and the eleventh down week in the
last thirteen. above estimates: the October trade deficit, month to date retail
chain store sales, the September Case Shiller home price index, October durable
goods, weekly jobless claims and the November PMI flash services index; below
estimates: the October Chicago national activity index, November Markit
manufacturing PMI, October existing home sales, third quarter corporate
profits, weekly mortgage and purchase allocations, October personal spending,
November consumer sentiment, November consumer confidence and the November
Richmond Fed manufacturing index; in line with estimates: third quarter GDP, October
personal income and October new home sales.
Primary
indicators slightly tipped to the negative side; but half of them were neutral:
October durable goods (+), October existing home sales (-), October personal
spending (-), third quarter GDP (0), October personal income (0) and October
new home sales (0).
Declining
corporate cash flow (short):
Overseas,
the data was mixed---which is something of a positive, given the long string of
almost completely bad news. Positives:
the November EU composite PMI, November German business morale, Japanese
jobless claims, plus Draghi suggested that the coming round of QE will be even
bigger than expected (although I would rate this a negative) and the Japanese
government announcement that it would increase spending; negatives: Japanese consumer
spending, the Swiss national bank pushed interest rate even further into minus
territory, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane, an anti-austerity
government was formed in Portugal and China s increased its pressure on its
investment banking industry.
There
was also a couple of negative anecdotal numbers: commodity prices continued to nosedive
and container freight rates are plunging.
In
sum, very little to warrant the holiday enthusiasm.
***overnight,
Black Friday sales were disappointing.
The Fed announced that it is considering measures to curb ‘emergency
lending power’, i.e. its ability to bail out specific banks (this is good
news).
Finally,
another price paid for chasing yield (medium):
Investing for Survival
There
is no such thing as a free lunch:
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
Other
For
all those dreamweavers who thought lower oil prices were an ‘unmitigated
positive’ (medium):
Politics
Domestic
International War Against Radical
Islam
Believe
or not: US is not bombing ISIS controlled oil fields for fear of the potential
environmental damage (medium):
Thoughts on the war on terror
(medium):
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