The Morning Call
11/16/15
The
Market
Technical
In
the last two trading days, the S&P challenged its (1) 200 day moving average
[if it closes there through the close tomorrow, it will revert from support to
resistance] and its (2) 100 day moving average [if it closes there through the close
tomorrow, it will revert from support to resistance]. It is also nearing the lower boundary of its
short term trading range and the September high. Nothing has yet changed in the technicals,
though clearly this could be a very active week.
The
long Treasury bounced off the lower boundary of its very short term trading
range---not really indicative of worries over higher interest rates. It does remain below its 100 day moving average
(not good) but within trading ranges very short term, short term and
intermediate term.
On
Friday, GLD (103.5) broke below the lower boundary of its short term trading
range; if it remains there through the close tomorrow, it will re-set to a
downtrend. The lower boundary of its
long term downtrend is circa 97.
In
the last two days of the trading week, oil fell 6%, breaking and confirming the
challenge of the lower boundary of its very short term trading range. It is now headed for recent lows.
The
VIX rose significantly, challenging tis 100 day moving average and the upper
boundary of its short term downtrend. It
remains within an intermediate term trading range.
Fundamental
With
90% of the S&P companies reporting, aggregate earnings are down 2.4%.
Investing for Survival
Why
the stock market has to go down:
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
The
November NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -10.74 versus expectations of
-5.0.
Other
Job
openings and the unemployment rate (medium):
***overnight,
Japanese third quarter GDP fell 0.8% and the second quarter figure was revised
down to -0.7%; the ECB said that nine large EU banks have a cumulative capital shortfall
of $1.9 billion.
Imports
at the three largest US ports fell in September and October.
A
look at the ‘service’ economy (short):
Politics
Domestic
International
The
immigration problem in Europe continues to grow (medium):
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