Monday, April 20, 2015

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

4/20/15

The Market
           
    Technical

       Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P has now set a second lower high, keeping the very short term downtrend intact.  That potentially could be another sign that a Market top is forming.  On the other hand, the short, intermediate and long term uptrends are still solid---the lower boundary of its short term uptrend being almost 100 points away. So it is going to take a lot more technical damage before the ‘Market top’ scenario can be taken seriously.

            Bull market corrections (short):

            A look at past bull markets (short):


 
            The long Treasury continues to hold the line.  It remains within very short term and short term trading ranges, intermediate and long term uptrends, above its 100 day moving average.



            Is this a pathetic looking chart or what?  GLD may have found a bottom; but note that the developing of head and shoulders formation which if completed would suggest lower prices.  On the other hand, there is little that points to any upside.



            One day after negating the lower boundary of a pennant formation, the VIX bounced 10%.  So I am going to put the call that negated this pattern on hold until we know whether Friday was simply one of those occasional down drafts that hit Markets or if it was signaling something more ominous.



    Fundamental
   
            Stocks reacting positively to earnings (short):

      Investing for Survival

            Everybody plays the fool (medium):
               

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

o    Lorillard (NYSE:LO): Q1 EPS of $0.82 beats by $0.05.
o    Revenue of $1.67B (+45.2% Y/Y) beats by $490M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The March Chicago fed National Activity index was reported at -.42 versus expectations of +.15.
           
   Other

            ***overnight, China lowered banking reserve requirements.

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam







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