Thursday, July 31, 2014

Paychex (PAYX) 2014 Review

Paychex Inc. provides computerized payroll-accounting services, salary deposit services, automatic payroll tax payment and tax return filing services and human resource products and services to approximately 570,000 small and medium sized businesses.  The company has earned a 25%+ return on equity over the last 10 years and has grown profits and dividends 8-13% in the same time period.  While PAYX is somewhat sensitive to the economy, it should continue to provide above average returns as a result of:

(1) rising number of checks processed as well as an increase in revenue per check,

(2) acquisitions,

(3) increasing demand for health and benefits offerings,

(4) geographic expansion,

(5) an R&D effort designed to expand product offerings.

Negatives:

(1) a weak economy negatively impacts the growth of its client base,

(2) low interest rates are impacting ‘interest on funds held for clients’.

PAYX is rated A by Value Line, has no debt and its stock yields 3.7%.

  Statistical Summary

                  Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                  Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

PAYX         3.7%           7%                82%             8
Ind Ave       1.9             11*                 39               NA 

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

PAYX        0%            36%            2                25%            A
Ind Ave     19              20              NA              12              NA

*over one half of the companies in PAYX’s industry don’t pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: PAYX stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its August 2007 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Dividend Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in PAYX.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $24; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $50.

   

7/14

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