Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Morning Call---The recent economic data carry a bad omen

The Morning Call

7/17/14

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 17138, S&P 1981) returned to the upside, closing above their 50 day moving averages and within uptrends across all time frames: short (16185-17664, 1912-2078), intermediate (16514-20872, 1851-2651) and long (5083-18464, 762-1999). 

            Volume rose noticeably for the second day in a row.  I am not sure what to make of it, if indeed there is anything to make.  But it is an aberration from the general trading pattern of the last three or four months, which suggests that we should be alert that something is in the offing---‘should be alert’ being the operative words.  I am making no prediction.
           
            Breadth improved.  The VIX did another reversal and finished back below the upper boundary of a very short term downtrend.  Which makes my comment on the confirmation of a break of that trend (‘though given the recent schizophrenic behavior, I am not sure this is more than a one day call’) in yesterday’s Morning Call far more prophetic than I thought at the time.  Rather than re-setting the very short term trend back to down, I am going to wait a couple of days before making any call on the very short trend.

            Another aberration has been developing over the last week---the small cap indices have been performing terribly versus the major Averages.  If this situation continues, history suggests that it is not a good sign for the Market.

            The long Treasury rose; and like the VIX, reversed itself through a very short term trend for the second time in a week.  It remained above its 50 day moving average and within short and intermediate term trading ranges.  As with the VIX, I am confessing my confusion, retreating from making a very short term trend call and choosing to wait for clarity.

            Hoisington Investment’s outlook for the bond market (medium):

            GLD was up fractionally, bouncing off its 50 day moving average and remaining within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.  Uncertainty reigns supreme with GLD as it does with VIX and TLT.

Bottom line: optimism returned to the Market accompanied by strong volume and improved breadth.  The bad news is that the schizophrenia in the VIX, TLT and GLD markets suggests that investors in other markets are not as certain as the straight stock guys.  However, given the S&P proximity to the upper boundary of its long term uptrend and the 2000 ‘round number’, it continues to seem likely to me that these levels will be challenged; although I also believe that any break will not be confirmed.

Our strategy remains to do nothing save taking advantage of the current momentum to lighten up on stocks whose prices are pushed into their Sell Half Range or whose underlying company’s fundamentals have deteriorated.

    Fundamental
 
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s US economic news was disappointing: weekly mortgage and purchase applications fell, June PPI rose more than expected and June industrial production was less than forecast. 

There was some upbeat economic news on the day: the Fed’s release of its latest Beige Book which continues to portray an economy growing at a modest pace.  A summary of the report (medium):

            Finally, Our Leader imposes additional sanctions on Russia.  So far, these measures have done little to curb Russian behavior.  Indeed, I think that Obama’s press conference in which the sanctions along with several other international trouble spots were discussed was more a ploy to address the growing criticism of Obama’s inept foreign policy than to actually announce anything of substance.  Whether these newly imposed measures will have an impact remains to be seen.

            On the international front, there were rumors that Espirito Santo would be able to raise capital which would secure it in the face of a default of an affiliated company. If that occurs, it will clearly mean that the ‘muddle through’ scenario remains in effect in Europe.  ***overnight, that rumor was put to rest; Espirito Santo’s stock is crashing

In addition, the Chinese reported some decent economic data: GDP and industrial production beat expectations and retail sales were up albeit a bit short of estimates.  The bad news was that housing prices fell.  In addition, this improvement has come at a price---the abandonment of monetary tightening, a sign that the Chinese government just couldn’t resist the temptation to join the rest of the world in QEInfinity.

Bottom line: the US economy remains the bright spot in our outlook.  But yesterday’s disappointing industrial production report following Tuesday’s poor June retail sales number (and today’s lousy housing starts---three primary indicators representing major portions of the economy) suggest that any talk of accelerating growth is likely only wishful thinking.  I am not saying that a recession is ahead.  I am basically re-iterating our forecast that economic progress will remain a slow and tortured affair---and that assumes that the litany of global problems that pose a threat to our economy are resolved to perfection.

My bottom line is that for current prices to hold, it requires a perfect outcome to the numerous problems facing the US and global economies AND investor willingness to accept the compression of future potential returns into current prices.

 I can’t emphasize strongly enough that I believe that the key investment strategy today is to take advantage of the current high prices to sell any stock that has been a disappointment or no longer fits your investment criteria and to trim the holding of any stock that has doubled or more in price.

            Bear in mind, this is not a recommendation to run for the hills.  Our Portfolios are still 55-60% invested and their cash position is a function of individual stocks either hitting their Sell Half Prices or their underlying company failing to meet the requisite minimum financial criteria needed for inclusion in our Universe.
        
            It is a cautionary note not to chase this rally.
           
            More on valuation (medium):

            Druckenmiller on Fed policy (short):
            http://www.cnbc.com/id/101838762

       Investing for Survival

            Investing with only those money managers that invest in their own strategy (medium):

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