Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

4/7/14

The Market

           

    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            Looking at the chart, nothing seems ominous about Friday’s trashing.  Clearly the S&P remains solidly within the uptrends of all timeframes.  However, there were two troublesome aspects about Friday’s pin action: (1) it framed an ‘outside’ down week, i.e. its intraday price movement formed both the week’s high and low.  I have talked about these ‘outside’ down days/weeks on prior occasions, noting that they are generally considered a negative; though over the past year, they have meant very little to the future pin action.  I am suggesting nothing by way of predictive value of Friday’s performance.  I am raising it as a cautionary note, (2) Friday was the first ‘jobs’ (nonfarm payroll) report in a year that the Market has been down.

            http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Dow-Theory-Buy-Signal-Not-Confirmed-DJIA-DJTA-DJUA-SPX

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

            The long Treasury rallied on Friday.  As you can see, while it failed to hold the upper boundary of its short term trading range during last week’s trading, it hold a re-set very short term uptrend.  That keeps alive the prospect that it still has upside momentum.

            Despite Friday’s strong rally, GLD remains in both a short and intermediate term downtrend and below its 50 day moving average.  Nothing to do here.

            The VIX is giving no sign that stocks are headed down.  It remains in that year plus short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.

    Fundamental

    

   Investing for Survival

            Your 401K (or not):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-06/government-confiscation-and-lifting-veil-401k-scheme

       News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            The problem with endless deficits (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-04/shocking-truth-about-deindustrialization-america-everyone-should-know

            Baltic Dry Index has worst quarter in ten years (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-04/baltic-dry-drops-9th-day-row-worst-q1-over-10-years

Politics

  Domestic

Quote of the day (short):

http://cafehayek.com/2014/04/quotation-of-the-day-953.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CafeHayek+%28Cafe+Hayek%29

  International

            More analysis of the Chinese economy (a bit long but must read):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-03/bazooka-theory-and-why-authorities-wont-pull-trigger

            What happened the last time Japan raised its consumption tax (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-03/what-happened-last-time-japan-raised-its-consumption-tax

            More on the problems with US sanctions (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-04/us-threatens-russia-sanctions-over-petrodollar-busting-deal

            Latest from Ukraine (short);

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-07/crimea-20-donetsk-activists-declare-kiev-independence-announce-peoples-republic-done

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.