Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Cummins Inc (CMI) 2014 Review

Cummins Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes and services diesel engines for heavy, medium and light duty trucks, autos, buses as well as industrial, electric power generation and engine related components markets.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 12-20% rate over the last ten years earning a 20%+ return on equity.  Like most heavy industrial firms, CMI earnings can be somewhat volatile.  However, it should continue to grow at an above average pace as a result of:

(1)    it is positioned to benefit from trends in emission standards, fuel economy, increased demand for electricity and infrastructure investments,

(2)    introduction of new products,

(3)    growing usage by OEM manufacturers

(4)    an aggressive stock buyback program.

Negatives:

(1)    economic weakness has a major impact on sales,

(2)    it is in a highly competitive industry.

CMI is rated A+ by Value Line, has a 10% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 1.8%

   Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio       Since 2004

CMI           1.8%          11%              23%             8
Ind Ave      1.7               4                 16               NA

                Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
               Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

CMI         10%           22%           3                    9%          A+
Ind Ave    38              15            NA                   7             NA

     Chart

            Note: CMI stock made great initial progress off its November 2008 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its  July 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in CMI.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $123; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $228.

   


4/14

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